21shares Publishes 2026 State of Crypto: Guiding the Next Chapter of the Digital Asset Economy

Zurich, 11 December 2025 – 21shares, one of the world’s leading providers of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs), today published its latest State of Crypto report covering the firm’s ten bold, evidence-led predictions leading into 2026, where digital assets will enter the next phase in their evolution.

This report explores how 21shares’ predictions for 2025 have played out, through a year in which institutional adoption, regulatory clarity and product innovation finally moved in sync, and offers forward-looking thoughts on the market now anchored by structural inflows, macro realignment and clearer rulebooks. This includes key themes mapping out this next phase, from Bitcoin’s steady evolution and the ongoing ETP flywheel to a trillion-dollar stablecoin market, a resurgent DeFi ecosystem, and the rise of agentic finance. Underpinning the 2026 predictions in this report is the foundational strength the crypto markets have achieved across the global financial system.

Some key predictions include: 

• Bitcoin ends its traditional four-year cycle: For over a decade, crypto markets have pulsed to Bitcoin’s halving rhythm: a programmed supply cut every four years, fueling rallies and cyclical corrections. The halving still matters, yet each halving’s marginal impact is diminishing, signaling Bitcoin’s transition away from cyclical boom-busts toward maturity as a macro asset. The four-year cycle no longer defines the tempo, but rather, structural inflows, macro realignment, and regulatory clarity do. 

• Global crypto ETPs will outpace the Nasdaq-100 ETF by the end of 2026: Crypto ETPs have become the dominant gateway for traditional investors to get digital asset exposure. Our prediction last year of crypto ETPs surpassing $250B in AUM was already hit, and we expect this trajectory to accelerate and reach $400B in 2026. Crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks across the globe are increasing, making crypto ETPs the global standard for institutional-grade  access. If Bitcoin reaches a $5–6T market cap, even a 10–15% allocation via ETPs would push total assets beyond $400B.
• The supply of stablecoins will reach $1 trillion: The stablecoin supply has already exceeded $300B in 2025, and we believe circulation will increase by 3.3x and reach $1 trillion in 2026. Through regulatory progress like the Genius ACT in the U.S. and MiCA in Europe, stablecoin adoption is surging globally. In fact, U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, now projects dollar stablecoins alone could top $2T by 2028. Stablecoins are clearly becoming the connective tissue between TradFi and DeFi and will continue to power everything on-chain.
• Prediction markets will be a major catalyst in onboarding millions of users on-chain: Prediction markets will continue to establish themselves in 2026, transforming global uncertainty into one of the crypto industry’s largest use cases since Bitcoin, stablecoins, and DeFi. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are expected to surpass $100B in annual traded volume, a trend driven by geopolitical moments, the readiness of crypto infrastructure, and regulatory and institutional alignment.
• Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will exceed half a trillion in total value locked (TVL): Tokenization is quickly evolving from concept to reality when it comes to equities, bonds, credit, and commodities. Driven by institutional adoption, demand for yield, and the launch of large-scale networks, we believe that tokenized real-world assets will increase from $35B in total value locked (TVL) in 2025, to over $500B in 2026. The Clarity Act is a major driver of this, giving banks and asset managers explicit approval to issue and custody tokenized instruments on public blockchains. Further, in 2026, we expect the first tokenized IPO to settle on a public blockchain.

“What we’re witnessing is crypto moving from the edges of finance to its core infrastructure. The data shows accelerating adoption, deeper liquidity, and clearer frameworks worldwide. Whether it’s $1 trillion stablecoins or half-a-trillion in tokenized assets, the momentum is structural. The industry is not just growing but clearly becoming an integral layer of the global financial system,” said Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Officer at 21shares.

“This State of Crypto report reflects how far the crypto industry has come, and how far we expect it to go in the year to come,” said Eliézer Ndinga, Global Head of Research at 21shares. “From the global adoption of crypto ETPs, to expanding use of stablecoins for payment settlements, to new emerging trends like prediction markets, it is clear the industry is continuing to innovate and is attracting new participants.”

The State of Crypto is produced by 21shares’ research team and is part of the firm’s broader commitment to investor education.

To read the full report, click here.

About 21shares

21shares is one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange traded product providers and offers the largest suite of physically-backed crypto ETPs in the market. The company was founded to make cryptocurrency more accessible to investors, and to bridge the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. 21shares listed the world’s first physically-backed crypto ETP in 2018, building a seven-year track record of creating crypto exchange-traded funds that are listed on some of the biggest, most liquid securities exchanges globally. Backed by a specialized research team, proprietary technology, and deep capital markets expertise, 21shares delivers innovative, transparent and cost-efficient investment solutions.

21shares is a subsidiary of FalconX, one of the world's largest digital asset prime brokers. 21shares maintains independent operations from FalconX while strategically leveraging the resources and reach of FalconX to accelerate its mission and unlock new growth. For more information, please visit www.21shares.com.

Contact: [email protected]

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared and issued by 21Shares AG for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Crypto asset trading involves a high degree of risk. The crypto asset market is new to many and unproven and may have the potential to not grow as expected.

Currently, there is relatively small use of crypto assets in the retail and commercial marketplace in comparison to relatively large use by speculators, thus contributing to price volatility that could adversely affect an investment in crypto assets. In order to participate in the trading of crypto assets, you should be capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the investment and be able to bear the economic risk of losing your entire investment.

Nothing should be considered as an offer by 21Shares AG and/or its affiliates to sell or solicitation by 21Shares AG or its parent of any offer to buy bitcoin or other crypto assets or derivatives. This report is provided for information and research purposes only and should not be construed or presented as an offer or solicitation for any investment. The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or any offering and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or solicit an offer to invest in any jurisdiction.

Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax, or other advice and users are cautioned against basing investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.