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Gemini obtained regulatory authorization to enter the exploding U.S. prediction market.
Some Wall Street titans believe trading in event-based contracts could eventually eclipse stock trading.
Shares of Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) soared on Thursday after the cryptocurrency exchange received a license to launch prediction markets in the U.S.
By the close of trading, Gemini's stock price was up more than 30%.
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Image source: Getty Images.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted the crypto platform's affiliate, Gemini Titan, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license that will enable Gemini to offer trading in event contracts to its U.S.-based customers on its website and mobile app.
Event contracts can be simple "yes" or "no" questions on future events, such as "Will Bitcoin's price be higher than $100k at the end of 2025?" Contracts could also be offered on outcomes outside of the cryptocurrency markets, in areas like election results, sports contests, and geopolitical events.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are expanding rapidly as their user activity and trading volumes soar. In October, the industry's weekly volume topped $2 billion for the first time.
This growth has caught the attention of Wall Street's heavyweights. For one, Thomas Peterffy, the chairman of Interactive Brokers Group, thinks the event-contracts market will grow to be larger than the stock market within the next 15 years.
During an interview with MarketWatch, Peterffy said:
The utility it provides to society is well beyond just the investment area. It's a vehicle to generate a consensus estimate as to where people think we are going. And as various events occur, people can see the likely influence of those events on the future.
Gemini president Cameron Winklevoss agrees. "Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets," Winklevoss said.
Prediction markets represent an enormous potential profit opportunity -- one that Gemini intends to pursue aggressively.
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Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Interactive Brokers Group. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2027 $43.75 calls on Interactive Brokers Group and short January 2027 $46.25 calls on Interactive Brokers Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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