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Suncor Energy Inc. SU has released its 2026 corporate guidance, reinforcing its commitment to operational excellence, disciplined capital allocation and sustained shareholder value creation. Building on two years of record-breaking performance, the company is preparing for another strong year, driven by higher production, stronger refining utilization and increased share buybacks.
Another integrated Canadian oil major, Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE, also simultaneously released its 2026 corporate outlook plan with a primary focus on upstream production that is expected to increase by 4% year over year. The company also eyes a reduction in its growth investments in 2026 to be between C$5 billion and C$5.3 billion.
Suncor expects annual upstream production between 840,000 and 870,000 barrels per day(bbls/d) in 2026, exceeding targets set during its 2024 Investor Day, supported by investment in in-situ projects in the oil sands patch. This marks growth of more than 100,000 bbls/d compared to 2023, showcasing improved reliability and sustained momentum.
Refining utilization is projected at 99% to 102%, highlighting consistent performance across all four refineries. Planned maintenance activities — including major overhauls at Firebag, Base Plant, Syncrude and Fort Hills — are integrated into the outlook without compromising the company’s high-operating baseline.
For 2026, Suncor plans C$5.7 billion in capital expenditures at the midpoint, aligning precisely with its Investor Day commitments. Investments will focus on sustaining capital and a select set of high-value projects, such as in situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit development and ongoing optimization of the Petro-Canada retail network.
This targeted approach ensures long-term asset performance while maintaining flexibility in a dynamic commodity environment.
Suncor remains unwavering in its shareholder-focused approach. The company recently increased monthly share buybacks by 10% to C$275 million, putting it on track for C$3.3 billion in repurchases in 2026. Leadership reaffirmed that 100% of excess funds will be returned to its shareholders, mirroring the disciplined framework applied in 2025.
With predictable cash flow, robust asset reliability and improving operational metrics, Suncor is positioned to enhance free funds flow through 2026 and beyond.
Although Canada holds the world’s third-largest oil reserves and production continues to climb, its exploration and production sector has always remained out of favor due to limited pipeline capacity and is constrained by political and legal challenges. However, Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney and Alberta’s premier signed an agreement recently that eases certain climate regulations to stimulate energy-sector investment and advance plans for a new West Coast pipeline, marking a sweeping shift in Canada's energy policy in favor of oil producers. The government is also eyeing a new crude oil pipeline in British Columbia's northwest coast to increase exports to Asia and diversify the export market. As part of the deal, the federal government will cancel its proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas industry and withdraw planned clean electricity rules, while Alberta agrees to enhance industrial carbon pricing and back a carbon capture and storage initiative.
Short maintenance periods and lengthy maintenance cycles are also helping Suncor and other Canadian producers to improve efficiency and thereby boost production outlook and increase oil sands output without launching major new projects and without high capex requirements. The operational gains achieved in 2024-2025 — through faster turnarounds, improved reliability and optimized maintenance planning — help create the confidence behind Suncor’s higher 2026 production outlook.
In early January 2026, Suncor will provide updates on its 2025 performance and progress against its 3-year roadmap outlined at the 2024 Investor Day. The company aims to illustrate how disciplined execution continues to drive both operational excellence and long-term value.
Alberta-based Suncor is Canada's premier integrated energy company. The company's operations include oil sands development and upgrading, conventional and offshore crude oil and gas production, petroleum refining and product marketing. Currently, SU has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Investors interested in the energy sector may consider some top-ranked stocks like Baytex Energy Corp. BTE and Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. NGS, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Baytex Energy is a conventional oil and gas income trust focused on maintaining its production and asset base through internal property development and delivering consistent returns to its unitholders. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BTE’s 2025 earnings indicates 9.5% year-over-year growth.
Natural Gas Services manufactures, fabricates, sells, rents and services natural gas compressors that enhance the production of natural gas wells. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NGS’ 2025 earnings indicates 13.3% year-over-year growth.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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