Is CCJ Prepared to Offset McArthur River Losses With Cigar Lake Gains?

Cameco Corporation CCJ had lowered its 2025 uranium production outlook earlier this year, citing development delays at the McArthur River mine. The mine located in northern Saskatchewan, Canada, is known as the largest high-grade uranium mine globally. CCJ holds a 69.805% stake in the mine

The Key Lake mill at the site is the world’s largest uranium mill (in which CCJ holds an 83.33% stake). The company also holds a 54.547% stake in Cigar Lake, the world’s highest-grade uranium mine. 

CCJ’s attributable uranium production from these operations totaled 15 million pounds in the first nine months of 2025, down 13% year over year. Output at the McArthur River mine was down 32%, offset by a 16% rise at Cigar Lake. 

As expected, production at the McArthur River mine had been impacted by the delays in transitioning into new mining areas. As a result of these delays, the Key Lake mill was shut down from Sept. 3 through Oct. 17, impacting production in the third quarter.

Cameco now expects its share of uranium production from the McArthur River mine at 9.8-10.5 million pounds in 2025 compared with the earlier forecast of 12.6 million pounds. The expected share of production from Cigar Lake remains at 9.8 million pounds for 2025. 

Its expected 2025 share from Cigar Lake remains unchanged at 9.8 million pounds. Supported by strong performance at the Cigar Lake mine and the McClean Lake mill so far, Cameco remains optimistic that these operations will help offset roughly 1 million pounds (on a 100% basis) of the anticipated shortfall from McArthur River.

Cameco’s Peer Performances

Energy Fuels UUUU produced approximately 465,000 pounds of uranium from its Pinyon Plain, La Sal and Pandora mines in the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 1,245,000 pounds. 

The Pinyon Plain mine has been a standout performer for Energy Fuels, with production ramping up significantly this year. Energy Fuels currently expects to mine ore from all of its mines containing approximately 875,000-1,435,000 pounds of contained uranium in 2025. Energy Fuels aims to process up to 1 million pounds of uranium this year.

Ur Energy URG is currently operating the Lost Creek project in south-central Wyoming, which has an annual capacity of 1.2 million pounds. This company dried and packaged 93,523 pounds and shipped 70,190 pounds to the conversion facility in the third quarter. This brings the year-to-date total to 288,622 pounds. Ur Energy recently received final approval for the expansion of Lost Creek. The company is also progressing with construction at Shirley Basin, which will transform it into a two-mine operation. Shirley Basin has a licensed annual mine capacity of 1 million pounds.

CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

So far this year, Cameco shares have gained 86.3% compared with the industry’s 36% growth. Meanwhile, the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector has moved up 29.8%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 19.6%.

CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 16.66 compared with the industry’s 1.44. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 95.9%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 55.6%. 
The consensus estimate for both year’s earnings has moved down over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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