Which Restaurant Stock Could Be the Breakout Star of 2026?

As investors look toward 2026, fast-casual dining is expected to remain one of the most attractive growth areas within the restaurant industry. This segment offers a good mix of affordable prices and better quality, helping brands grow faster than full-service restaurants while earning higher margins than traditional fast-food chains.

However, the bar for success is rising. With consumers still cautious about discretionary spending, only those concepts that combine a loyal following, smart expansion strategies and improving unit economics are likely to emerge as true breakout stocks.

What Defines a “Breakout” Restaurant Stock 

A breakout restaurant stock is not simply one opening the most locations. Instead, it is a company that can grow units while sustaining traffic, protecting margins and building long-term brand equity. Investors are paying close attention to whether revenue growth is driven by higher guest count rather than pricing alone.

In a value-sensitive environment, concepts that rely heavily on promotions risk sacrificing profitability, while those with differentiated menus and operational efficiency are better positioned to deliver durable earnings growth.

As we approach 2026, companies like CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA, Sweetgreen, Inc. SG, Wingstop Inc. WING and Dutch Bros Inc. BROS are better positioned to gain from the aforementioned factors.

4 Restaurant Stocks to Watch in 2026

CAVA: A Scalable Concept with Strong Unit Economics

Among emerging fast-casual leaders, CAVA Group stands out as a top contender for a 2026 breakout. This Mediterranean-inspired chain has steadily expanded beyond its coastal strongholds while maintaining attractive average unit volumes.

Its menu aligns well with health-conscious dining trends, and its streamlined kitchen model supports efficiency and digital ordering. Importantly, CAVA’s expansion appears disciplined, with new restaurants generating solid returns rather than diluting performance. If consumer traffic stabilizes or improves in 2026, the combination of unit growth and operating leverage could drive meaningful earnings acceleration.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 2026 sales to rise by 21.1%, while earnings are expected to grow 11.3% year over year. In the past month, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock has surged 14.8% compared with the industry’s rise of 5.2%.

Sweetgreen: Cult Following Meets an Execution Test

Sweetgreen remains one of the most recognizable names in the health-focused fast-casual space, supported by a devoted customer base and strong brand identity. The company is increasingly focused on improving efficiency through automation and more selective unit growth.

While these efforts could enhance margins over time, Sweetgreen’s near-term challenge is reigniting same-store sales momentum. For the stock to break out in 2026, investors will need to see consistent traffic gains that validate the brand’s long-term appeal beyond its core urban markets.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales indicates an increase of 13.3%, while earnings are expected to grow 15.5% year over year. In the past month, this Zacks Rank #3 stock has surged 26.9%. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Wingstop: Rapid Expansion With Consumer Sensitivity

Wingstop offers a different growth profile, driven by a highly franchised model and a digital-first approach that encourages repeat ordering. Its aggressive unit expansion underscores confidence in the concept’s scalability, and its fan base is deeply engaged.

However, recent fluctuations in same-store sales highlight exposure to shifts in discretionary spending. A Wingstop breakout scenario in 2026 likely depends on traffic normalization combined with continued store openings, reaffirming the durability of demand across economic cycles.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 2026 sales to rise by 17.9%, while earnings are expected to grow 21.9% year over year. In the past month, this Zacks Rank #3 stock has gained 5.5%.

Dutch Bros: Beverage-Led Growth with Cult Appeal

Dutch Bros adds a compelling beverage-focused angle to the breakout conversation. The company has built a cult-like following, particularly among younger consumers, driven by customization, speed and a community-oriented brand culture. Its drive-thru-heavy format provides structural advantages in convenience and labor efficiency, supporting strong volumes at new locations.

With a long runway for expansion across the United States, Dutch Bros could deliver outsized growth if execution remains disciplined. While margins can be influenced by labor investments and promotional activity, sustained traffic and unit productivity could make the chain a standout performer by 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects 2026 sales to rise by 24.2%, while earnings are expected to grow 27.9% year over year. In the past month, this Zacks Rank #3 stock has gained 17.4%.

The Likeliest Breakout Candidate for 2026

Several restaurant stocks present credible growth narratives, but the breakout winner is likely to be the one that best balances expansion with profitability in a cautious consumer environment. Among the group, CAVA appears closest to achieving that balance, supported by attractive unit economics and a still-early growth curve.

Dutch Bros offers an intriguing beverage-led alternative with strong brand momentum, while Sweetgreen and Wingstop remain more sensitive to execution and demand trends. As the industry enters a more selective phase, investors are likely to reward restaurant companies that can demonstrate disciplined growth, resilient traffic, and improving margins, key ingredients for becoming the breakout restaurant stock of 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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