Can BigBear.ai's Agentic AI Lead the Next Wave of Defense Automation?

As defense agencies accelerate digital modernization, the focus is shifting from standalone analytics toward agentic AI—systems that not only analyze data but autonomously assist, coordinate and execute complex workflows under human oversight. BigBear.ai Holdings BBAI is positioning itself squarely at the center of this shift, leveraging its deep roots in U.S. defense, intelligence, and national security programs.

BigBear.ai’s strategy gained momentum with its agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a secure generative and agentic AI platform built specifically for defense and other highly regulated environments. Ask Sage already operates at scale across thousands of government teams and enables mission-ready AI agents for tasks such as compliance automation, acquisition workflows, and decision support. Management views this as a critical step toward delivering an integrated platform that combines data, models and mission execution in one secure environment.

The investment case rests on differentiation rather than volume. Defense agencies demand trusted, auditable, and secure AI, where policy, zero-trust architectures and verified data sources constrain autonomy. BigBear.ai’s agentic approach aligns well with these requirements, potentially giving it an edge over commercial AI platforms that struggle to adapt to classified or regulated settings.

However, execution risk remains. Government procurement cycles are long, funding visibility can fluctuate and near-term financial performance has been uneven. Still, with a sizable backlog, a strengthened balance sheet and growing exposure to agentic AI use cases, BigBear.ai appears well-positioned to benefit as defense automation moves from experimentation to scaled deployment.

BigBear.ai represents a high-risk, high-upside play on the next phase of defense AI where intelligent agents augment human decision-makers and reshape how missions are executed.

Competitive Landscape: 2 Key Peers to BigBear.ai

In the defense-focused AI automation arena, Palantir Technologies PLTR and Leidos Holdings LDOS emerge as two highly relevant competitors to BigBear.ai.

Palantir Technologies remains a dominant force in defense and intelligence software, with platforms embedded across mission planning, battlefield awareness, and decision intelligence. Palantir’s strength lies in large-scale data integration and AI-enabled analytics that support commanders and analysts in real time. As defense agencies experiment with more autonomous, agent-based workflows, Palantir is extending its platforms to support increasingly automated decision loops, directly overlapping with BigBear.ai’s agentic AI ambitions. Palantir also benefits from deep institutional relationships and long-duration government contracts.

Leidos Holdings (LDOS) brings a systems-integration-led approach to defense automation, combining AI, autonomy, cyber, and mission software at scale. Leidos Holdings plays a central role in deploying AI within classified environments, often acting as the prime integrator for complex defense programs. As agentic AI adoption accelerates, Leidos Holdings is well-positioned to embed autonomous decision tools into broader defense architectures, making Leidos Holdings a formidable competitor to BigBear.ai’s mission-focused AI platforms.

BBAI Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation Trend

BigBear.ai stock gained 73.2% over the past year and outperformed major benchmarks, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, and even the Zacks Computers – IT Services industry, as shown below.

BBAI Stock’s One-Year Performance

BBAI stock is currently trading at a discount compared with the industry peers, with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 15.22, as evidenced by the chart below.

BBAI’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

EPS Trend of BBAI Stock

Over the past 60 days, expectations for the company’s 2025 loss per share narrowed from $1.10 to 93 cents, while the anticipated 2026 loss per share also narrowed from 32 cents to 25 cents. The company had previously posted a loss of $1.10 in 2024, making the projected trajectory one of steady improvement rather than abrupt transformation.
 

BigBear.ai stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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