Why a SpaceX IPO Could Be a Major Catalyst for GOOGL Stock

One of the more intriguing headlines to surface recently is the growing expectation that SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space and satellite juggernaut, could pursue an IPO as early as 2026. Rumors suggest a potential valuation of $1.5 trillion, which would make it the largest public offering in history. While that prospect is understandably exciting for space-focused names like Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) and Planet Lab PBC (NYSE: PL), which saw upward momentum on the news, it could prove just as crucial, if not more so, for an unexpected beneficiary: Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL).

The reason is simple. Alphabet is one of SpaceX’s earliest and most significant outside investors. If SpaceX ultimately goes public anywhere near the valuations currently being discussed, Alphabet stands to unlock one of the most extraordinary unrealized gains ever embedded inside a public company’s balance sheet.

Alphabet’s Early Bet on SpaceX

Alphabet’s involvement with SpaceX dates back to 2015, when Google invested roughly $900 million for a 7.4% stake in the company. At the time, SpaceX was valued at almost $12 billion. Starlink was still largely conceptual, revenue was minimal, and the investment was widely viewed as speculative.

A decade later, that investment has quietly become one of the most successful venture capital bets of the modern era. In Q1 2025, Alphabet disclosed roughly $8 billion in unrealized gains tied primarily to its SpaceX stake, reflecting private-market valuations of roughly $350 billion at the time.

That accounting gain alone represented nearly a quarter of Alphabet’s net income in one quarter, underscoring how material this holding has already become.

If SpaceX were to IPO near the rumored $1.5 trillion valuation in 2026, Alphabet’s original $900 million investment could be worth more than $110 billion.

That would represent an extraordinary return and would instantly elevate SpaceX from a footnote in Alphabet’s disclosures to one of the most valuable strategic investments ever held by a public company.

Starlink As a Real Driver of Value

What underpins this valuation trajectory is SpaceX’s transformation from a launch company into a global communications infrastructure provider. The reusability of the Falcon 9 booster, with some stages flying more than 20 missions, fundamentally altered launch economics and made Starlink viable at scale.

As a result, Starlink has grown rapidly, surpassing an estimated 8 million subscribers by late 2025 and becoming SpaceX’s primary revenue engine. Annual revenue is now projected to exceed $11 billion in 2025, with margins that increasingly resemble those of a telecommunications utility rather than a traditional aerospace business.

This shift has reshaped how investors view SpaceX. Recently, insider tender offers valued the company at $800 billion, nearly doubling its valuation in just a few months. SpaceX now accounts for the vast majority of global payload mass delivered to orbit and holds more than $22 billion in government contracts tied to defense and intelligence satellite networks. In practical terms, it has become a critical piece of global communications and security infrastructure.

Why This Matters for Alphabet Shareholders

For Alphabet investors, the importance of a SpaceX IPO goes beyond headline valuation. It highlights how deeply embedded Alphabet is in future-defining technologies outside of search, advertising, and cloud computing. A public listing would crystallize the value of an asset that currently sits vastly underappreciated within Alphabet’s broader story.

It also reinforces a broader theme. Alphabet has quietly built one of the most powerful portfolios of long-duration innovation bets in the market. Alongside SpaceX, Waymo remains a significant option for autonomous transportation. On Dec. 16, it was reported that Waymo is exploring a capital raise at a valuation approaching $100 billion, signaling continued confidence in the commercial viability of robotaxi networks.

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