Will 2026 Be a Year for Massive IPOs?

The year began with post-election optimism and expectations of a strong first quarter. Instead, markets were hit by the rise of low-cost AI initiatives from China, and its adverse impact on the U.S. Big Tech, Trump tariffs, sticky inflation, and persistently high interest rates. Stabilization in the market returned from the month of May after a tariff-induced turbulent April.

Wall Street got charged-up in midyear, followed by a Q3 rate cut that reignited IPO activity – much of it tied to artificial intelligence. That momentum faded abruptly when the longest U.S. government shutdown brought the fourth-quarter economic progress to a halt, as mentioned in an article published on Mondaq.

The IPO Market: Brief Mid-Year Momentum

After a sluggish start, the IPO window briefly opened between July and September 2025. IPO researcher Renaissance Capital had then expected the quickest clip of deal activity since 2021 to happen during the fall. However, that optimism proved short-lived. A record-long government shutdown disrupted what could have been a strong fourth quarter for IPOs.

Against this backdrop, around 200 U.S. IPOs have been priced so far this year, a 39.9% increase from last year. Total proceeds raised stand at $37.6 billion, marking a 27.2% rise year over year, per Renaissance Capital. In the third quarter, 64 IPOs raised a combined $15.3 billion, making it the biggest quarter for new issuance since 2021, Renaissance Capital mentioned.

In this context, investors should pay close attention to IPO-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as Renaissance IPO ETF IPO and First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF FPX.

What Lies Ahead?

Note thatpotential issuers did not disappear due to the government shutdown; they lined up and waited in a queue as long as the uncertainty related to the shutdown was in place. As a result, early 2026 could see a sharp reopening. A high stock market is also likely to contribute to IPO activities.

Mega-listings from tech giants like SpaceX, Anthropic and Databricks are likely. Bankers describe behind-the-scenes preparations ahead of 2026 as "overwhelming," per Bloomberg. Favorable conditions include a stabilizing macro backdrop, easing trade tensions, a lower rate volatility, and SEC efforts to streamline and facilitate public listings (per Mondaq).

AI and space sectors lead with massive valuations. SpaceX is progressing with an insider share sale that values Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at about $800 billion (per Bloomberg, as quoted on Yahoo Finance). This could help the company create the largest initial public offering of all time.

Performance of U.S. IPO Index

Renaissance IPO ETF – which considers new stocks only with an average age of 1.3 years – has lost about 5.8% over the past month versus 0.23% gains in the S&P 500 index. Over the past three years, both indexes delivered almost the same return. While the IPO returned 20.6%, the S&P 500 advanced 21.2%.

Three Most Anticipated IPOs of 2026

SpaceX: A Likely Record-Setter?

SpaceX’s latest secondary offering, priced shares at $421, was nearly double the $212 level set in July at a $400 billion valuation, according to a memo from Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen. This valuation propelled the company past the $500 billion record set by OpenAI in October, and made it the world’s most valuable privately held company once again, per Bloomberg, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is targeting an overall valuation of around $1.5 trillion. This would place the IPO near the market value Saudi Aramco achieved in its record-breaking 2019 listing.

OpenAI: The Trillion-Dollar AI Candidate

ChatGPT maker OpenAI is widely expected to explore a late-2026 listing (as quoted on Saxo), with valuation estimates approaching $1 trillion. Revenues have tripled annually in the last two years, reaching a $20 billion run rate, with a goal to scale up, despite heavy cash burn.

Anthropic: Another Strong IPO Contender

Anthropic is considering a blockbuster IPO while also exploring new private funding at valuations exceeding $300 billion, according to the Financial Times, as the AI startup engages the law firm Wilson Sonsini and major investment banks for a likely 2026 entry into the public markets, as quoted on Reuters. Anthropic projects to nearly three times annualized revenues in 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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