T1 Energy Inc. (TE): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on T1 Energy Inc. on Stockdrifts Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TE. T1 Energy Inc.'s share was trading at $5.44 as of December 16th.

T1 Energy Inc. provides energy solutions for solar and batteries in the United States and Norway. It also manufactures and sells photovoltaic solar modules. TE represents a unique opportunity as America’s only vertically integrated solar manufacturer, positioned at the intersection of AI-driven electricity demand, energy security, and domestic manufacturing reshoring. While markets have focused on GPUs, the real bottleneck is power: hyperscale AI data centers consume 3-5x more energy than traditional computing, creating insatiable demand for domestic, scalable solar capacity.

T1’s G1 Dallas module facility (5 GW capacity) is operational, producing enough electricity to power 15-20 hyperscale data centers, while the under-construction G2 Austin cell facility (5 GW, $850M investment) is scheduled to start production in H2 2026, precisely when U.S. policy incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (FEOC rules) and Section 45X credits will maximize domestic solar content value. These policies, combined with extraordinary tariffs on Chinese panels, create a regulatory moat that favors U.S.-based production.

T1’s vertical integration—from polysilicon to modules—ensures control over a historically constrained supply chain, positioning the company to capture substantial pricing premiums and accelerate growth. Partnerships with Corning, Nextracker, and endorsements from utilities like Clearway Energy validate T1’s technology and execution capabilities, reducing operational risk. The company is already cash-flow positive, with 2025 production sold out at 2.6 GW, and its roadmap targets $650M–$700M EBITDA with 70%+ U.S. content by 2027, supporting roughly 6,000 domestic jobs.

Trading at a fraction of competitors like First Solar, T1’s stock offers an asymmetric risk/reward profile. Near-term catalysts include the G2 Austin financing decision, first monetization of 45X credits, and cell production launch, while enduring moats stem from regulatory protection, vertical integration, and long-term utility contracts. Even under conservative scenarios, TE represents a compelling play on AI’s power hunger and America’s energy independence, with the potential to rerate dramatically as the market connects the dots.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) by OppCost in May 2025, which highlighted its transition to an integrated home energy solutions provider and strong long-term growth prospects. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 35.92% since our coverage. The thesis still stands. Stockdrifts Research shares a similar view but emphasizes T1 Energy’s vertical integration and rerating potential.

T1 Energy Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 12 hedge fund portfolios held TE at the end of the third quarter which was 11 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of TE as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW 

Disclosure: None.