General Mills’ fourth quarter results were met positively by the market, as revenue and non-GAAP profit per share both exceeded Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the performance to ongoing pricing strategies and new product innovation in North America Retail, alongside early momentum within the Pet segment. CEO Jeffrey Harmening emphasized that strategic price adjustments and a strengthened product pipeline helped the company gain pound share in eight of its top ten categories, while the launch of Love Made Fresh in Pet contributed to incremental share gains. However, management acknowledged persistent volume declines and a promotional environment shaped by cautious consumer spending, particularly among middle and lower-income households.
Is now the time to buy GIS? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
General Mills (GIS) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $4.86 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.77 billion (7.2% year-on-year decline, 1.9% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.10 vs analyst estimates of $1.03 (7.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $985.7 million vs analyst estimates of $935.5 million (20.3% margin, 5.4% beat)
- Operating Margin: 15%, down from 20.6% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 1% year on year vs analyst estimates of 2.8% declines (179.5 basis point beat)
- Sales Volumes fell 9% year on year (3% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $24.89 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions.
Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated.
Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From General Mills’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Peter Galbo (Bank of America) asked about the sustainability of volume growth in North America Retail, especially after shipment timing benefits. Group President Dana McNabb said volume gains may moderate but expects ongoing category competitiveness.
- Andrew Lazar (Barclays) questioned the speed at which volume share and value share gaps could close. CEO Jeffrey Harmening noted a volatile environment and expects improvement as price investments fully lap, but cautioned it may take time.
- Max Gumport (BNP) inquired if additional price investments might be needed in 2026 given current effectiveness. McNabb responded that prices are now at the right levels but the company will continuously monitor competitive dynamics.
- John Baumgartner (Mizuho) probed on the need for larger promotions given consumer buying on discount. Harmening said the promotional environment is rational, with consumers buying more on discount due to financial strain, but not requiring deeper or more frequent promotions.
- Thomas Palmer (JPMorgan) asked about inflation and tariff impacts in the second half. CFO Kofi Bruce stated that base inflation remains around 3%, with tariffs adding another 1–2% headwind, and expects some mitigation through cost coverage and margin management.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be closely watching (1) whether General Mills can sustain improved volume and share trends in North America Retail, (2) the effectiveness of new product launches—especially in high-protein cereals and the Love Made Fresh Pet line, and (3) the company’s ability to offset ongoing margin pressures from tariffs and higher costs through its holistic margin management program. Progress in capturing e-commerce growth within Pet and execution on category leadership initiatives will also be important milestones for tracking operational momentum.
General Mills currently trades at $46.72, in line with $47.02 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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