Hartford Insurance Up 27% in a Year: Does the Rally Still Have Legs?

Shares of The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. HIG have delivered an impressive 27% return over the past year, comfortably outperforming the industry’s 9.7% gain and the S&P 500’s 19.5% rise. The rally has been fueled by solid operating execution, steady growth in earned premiums and a supportive investment income backdrop.

Price Performance – HIG vs. Industry & S&P 500

Based in Hartford, CT, the company provides a broad suite of insurance and financial services across domestic and international markets. With a market capitalization of $38.6 billion, HIG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The key question now is whether the stock can sustain its momentum and deliver incremental upside from current levels.

Let’s take a closer look.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS stands at $12.44, implying a strong 20.8% year-over-year increase, followed by 4.5% growth in 2026 to $13. It has witnessed one upward estimate revision in the past month, against no downward movement. HIG has also established a consistent earnings beat record, surpassing estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 14.3%.

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Quote

For the top line, 2025 estimates are pegged at $19.9 billion, implying 9.1% growth from the prior year. Revenues are expected to remain on an upward trajectory in 2026, with the consensus estimate projecting a 7.6% year-over-year increase.

Strategically, Hartford Insurance has sharpened its focus on core businesses, disciplined underwriting and profitability enhancement. The divestiture of legacy run-off portfolios and non-core operations has streamlined the business, strengthened its risk profile and improved financial flexibility. At the same time, ongoing investments in digital tools and data science are enhancing platform capabilities and supporting customer acquisition and retention.

These efforts are clearly reflected in profitability metrics. HIG’s trailing 12-month return on equity stands at 21.07%, more than double the industry average of 8.02%, underscoring the company’s efficient capital deployment.

Operational restructuring initiatives, most notably Hartford Next, are also beginning to bear fruit. In the first nine months of 2025, the Employee Benefits segment posted a 10-basis-point improvement in core earnings margin, while the Business Insurance combined ratio improved by 70 basis points, signaling better underwriting discipline.

Capital returns remain another key pillar of the investment case. HIG has consistently rewarded shareholders through aggressive buybacks and steady dividends. The company repurchased $1.5 billion of shares in 2024, followed by $1.2 billion during the first nine months of 2025. As of Sept. 30, 2025, $1.95 billion remained under its current repurchase authorization. Additionally, Hartford returned $446 million in dividends over the first three quarters, supporting a dividend yield of 1.7%, well above the industry average of 0.3%.

Risks to Monitor

Despite the positives, a few challenges warrant attention. Near-term improvements in the Personal Insurance segment are yet to translate into sustainable margin recovery, with cost pressure still elevated. The segment reported a combined ratio of 96.2% for the first nine months of 2025.

Balance sheet leverage is another consideration. As of the end of the third quarter, long-term debt totaled $4.4 billion, significantly exceeding the company’s cash balance of $150 million. Long-term debt represents 24.1% of total equity, well above the industry average.

That said, Hartford’s disciplined execution, strategic efforts and capital management strategy position it well for sustainable long-term growth, even as near-term risks remain in focus.

Key Picks in Finance

Meanwhile, investors interested in the broader finance space can look at companies like CNA Financial Corporation CNA, Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF and HCI Group, Inc. HCI, each carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNA Financial’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $4.86 per share. The consensus mark witnessed two upward estimate revisions in the past 60 days. Also, the consensus mark for CNA’s 2025 revenues of $13.53 billion suggests 6.2% year-over-year growth.

The consensus mark for Cincinnati Financial’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $7.21 per share. The estimate witnessed one upward estimate revision over the past month. The company beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average of 52.4%. The consensus mark for Cincinnati Financial’s current year revenues is pegged at $11.19 billion, implying a 12.5% increase from a year ago.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HCI Group’s 2025 earnings indicates 173.8% year-over-year surge. Over the past 60 days, it has witnessed three upward revisions against none in the opposite direction. HCI Group’s current-year revenue estimates indicate an 18.9% increase from a year ago.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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