Strategy's Bitcoin Loss Widens in Q4: Is Volatility Risk Rising?

Strategy Inc. MSTR reported a massive $17.44 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings in the fourth quarter of 2025, underscoring how sharply crypto price swings can impact its performance. The loss was caused by a pullback in Bitcoin prices and reflects a non-cash, unrealized impact rather than a realized cash outflow. Still, the magnitude of the decline underscores Strategy’s unusually high exposure to crypto-market volatility.

As one of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders, Strategy’s balance sheet and earnings are tightly linked to Bitcoin price movements. This sensitivity has impacted investor sentiment, with share prices down nearly 47.5% in 2025, as ongoing market volatility and balance-sheet risks continue to pressure shares. Management also revised its outlook after weaker Bitcoin performance, acknowledging that continued price swings can materially affect near-term financial metrics.

Strategy has taken proactive steps to strengthen liquidity and manage volatility risk. In December, the company established a $1.44 billion USD reserve, funded through equity issuance, to support dividend and interest payments. The reserve is designed to cover at least 12 months — and potentially up to 24 months — of dividend obligations, providing a buffer against ongoing crypto-market volatility. As of Jan. 4, 2026, the balance of the USD Reserve was $2.25 billion.

The updated 2025 outlook incorporates a wide Bitcoin price range, emphasizing earnings sensitivity to price swings. Despite fourth-quarter volatility concerns, Strategy’s reserve build and liquidity actions suggest a focus on maintaining near-term financial stability.

Strategy Faces Growing Pressure From Rivals

MARA Holdings MARA competes with Strategy through a structurally different crypto model that integrates Bitcoin mining and accumulation. MARA combines large-scale Bitcoin mining with strategic Bitcoin purchases, blending production and accumulation. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, MARA held 52,850 BTC, highlighting scale and long-term positioning. In parallel, the company is expanding into the data-center space to help cushion earnings volatility from crypto price swings.

Riot Platforms RIOT presents a growing competitive threat to Strategy by monetizing Bitcoin through large-scale mining rather than treasury accumulation. It benefits from cost-efficient operations, strategic capacity expansion and digital infrastructure that directly supports the Bitcoin network. At the end of the third quarter of 2025, RIOT held 19,287 BTC and produced 1,406 BTC. With $180.2 million in revenues and $104.5 million in net income, RIOT highlights rising competitive pressure while mitigating volatility through diversification and acquisitions.

MSTR’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Strategy have fallen sharply, plunging 58.4% over the past six months, significantly underperforming the Zacks Finance sector’s 7.7% gain and the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry’s 14.1% decline.

MSTR’s Six Month Price Performance

MSTR has a Value Score of F. It is currently trading at a Price/Book ratio of 0.91X compared to the sector’s 4.32X.

MSTR’s Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $78.04 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. The estimate also indicates a year-over-year improvement from a loss of $6.72 per share.

MSTR stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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