Can Rigetti Computing Stock Turn a $10,000 Investment Into $1 Million?

Quantum computing has been one of the hottest investing themes in recent years, right up there with artificial intelligence (AI). Investors have been gravitating to stocks focused on cutting-edge technologies that can revolutionize not only the tech sector, but the entire global economy.

A particularly hot quantum computing stock has been Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), which has soared by 2,500% since January 2024. And what may be intriguing to investors is that even amid such an impressive rally, its market cap is still around $8 billion today. If quantum computing takes off in the near future, Rigetti's valuation could soar even higher.

This raises the question of whether Rigetti can still be a great investment to add to your portfolio and whether it has the potential to turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million at some point in the future. Let's take a look at how probable that is, and whether this is a tech stock you should consider buying right now.

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Rigetti's business comes with both significant opportunities and uncertainty

Quantum computing can solve complex problems at significantly faster speeds than are currently possible. That can drive efficiency in all sorts of businesses. There's plenty of growth potential out there, as well as hope that Rigetti's business could be at the center of the quantum computing revolution.

However, investors should at a minimum brace for a long investing time frame. That's because it may still be several years before quantum computing has a significant impact on the world. According to estimates from MarketsandMarkets, the entire quantum computing market will be worth $20 billion in 2030. While that's significantly more than the nearly $3 billion it was estimated to be worth in 2024, it's still relatively small overall.

For Rigetti to be a 100x investment, you'd probably be looking at a period spanning decades, and that's under the best-case scenario for the business.

Could Rigetti be a future tech giant?

If Rigetti's stock turns $10,000 into $1 million, that would mean its market cap might swell to around $837 billion or more; that's the equivalent of 100 times its current value. If you're looking at the very long term (e.g., 30-plus years), anything is certainly possible. Many investors may dream of it becoming a future tech giant, given the opportunities in quantum computing.

However, when investors get caught up in dreams, that's when they can encounter real-world problems. Rigetti has potential, but it also possesses significant risk. The company generated just $7.5 million in revenue over the past four quarters, while its losses have been significantly higher at just under $351 million. The reality is that this will be a risky and unprofitable cash-burning business for the foreseeable future.

Even if you do believe that quantum computers will be commonplace within the next decade, that doesn't mean that Rigetti itself will still be around by then, much less that it'll be a big player in the industry.

Why I'd hold off on investing in Rigetti

Rigetti is a highly risky stock, and it wasn't all that long ago that investors shied away from it. In 2022, when there wasn't nearly as much excitement around quantum computing, the stock crashed after it went public, ultimately finishing the year with a market cap of around $90 million.

Today, there's much more exuberance in the quantum computing world, which has propelled Rigetti's stock to a sky-high valuation, given its underwhelming financial results. If that excitement cools off, however, it could be due for a steep correction. The stock is already down more than 50% from its high of $58.15, as investors may already be thinking twice about the risk involved with Rigetti.

The safest option may be to simply take a wait-and-see approach with Rigetti and just put the stock on your watch list. If it proves to be a leader in the quantum computing space, there can still be massive gains to be made in the long run. But by rushing into buying it today, you could be taking on an enormous amount of risk.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.