Can Lucid Keep Its Delivery Growth Streak Alive in 2026?

Lucid Group LCID ended 2025 with clear operational momentum. Deliveries set fresh records and a late-year production ramp reset expectations. At the same time, profitability and cash remain the swing factors investors must monitor.

Delivery Records Set the Bar Higher

Deliveries reached 15,841 vehicles in 2025, up 55% year over year. Fourth-quarter deliveries of 5,345 units rose 31% sequentially and exceeded the 3,099 units delivered in the year-ago quarter, resulting in an eight-quarter streak of new highs.

Production told the same story. Full-year output of 18,378 vehicles included a fourth-quarter surge to 8,412, up 116% versus the third quarter and 148% higher than the fourth quarter of 2024, allowing Lucid to meet its year-end production target after a slow first half.

Gravity Drives the Quarterly Mix

The Gravity SUV became the majority of fourth-quarter production, a notable pivot that followed an order mix shift toward Gravity during the third quarter. That mix supported higher average selling prices as the company widened the Gravity lineup, helping revenue quality improve alongside volume.

Management also added a second shift in October, positioning operations to sustain the Gravity-led cadence. With Gravity Touring broadening the addressable market, the mix should continue to favor higher-value configurations as 2026 unfolds.

Costs And Cash Remain the Watch Items

Margins were near triple-digit negative in the third quarter of 2025, pressured by tariffs (about a 13-point hit to GAAP gross margin) and inventory effects tied to the fourth-quarter ramp. Adjusted EBITDA losses widened year over year in Q3 as supply chain costs and launch expenses persisted.

Free cash outflow was about $956 million in the third quarter, reflecting elevated R&D, SG&A, and program investments. For 2025, management guided capital expenditures of $1-1.2 billion, implying continued negative free cash flow near term despite better volumes. Liquidity stood at $4.2 billion at Q3’25 end, with an undrawn delayed-draw term loan facility expanded to roughly $2 billion.

What Do Estimates for LCID Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 revenues points to a year-over-year increase of 55% and 77%, respectively.  The jump aligns with stronger unit volume and a richer model mix following Gravity’s transition to production majority in the fourth quarter.

Lucid Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Lucid Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Lucid Group, Inc. Quote

Delivery Snapshots LCID Peers

While LCID recorded year-over-year increase in 2025 deliveries, close peers like Tesla TSLA and Rivian RIVN witnessed declines.

Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down from 51,579 in 2024, and produced 42,284 units compared with 49,476 a year earlier. As for Tesla, it delivered over 1,635,000 vehicles in 2025 versus more than 1,789,000 units in 2024.

Investor Takeaway

Lucid enters 2026 with production momentum and a Gravity-driven mix that lifts sales potential. Despite LCID’s delivery momentum, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and a VGM Score of F, indicating near-term headwinds as the market weighs cash burn, tariffs, and supply variability against improving execution. The investment debate now hinges on how fast margins recover and cash burn moderates against a still-volatile cost backdrop.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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