J&J's Innovative Medicine Segment in Q4: Here's What to Watch

Johnson & Johnson JNJ, through its Innovative Medicine segment, commercializes multiple blockbuster therapies spanning a wide range of disease areas, such as neuroscience, cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, immunology, oncology, pulmonary hypertension (PH), and infectious diseases. The company is set to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Jan. 21, and investors will be closely watching the performance of the Innovative Medicine segment.

Below, we highlight some key factors that may have influenced the segment’s sales during the quarter.

The segment’s sales rose 3.4% on an organic basis in the first nine months of 2025 despite the loss of exclusivity (LOE) of its multi-billion-dollar product, Stelara, and the negative impact of the Part D redesign.  The segment has recorded two consecutive quarters of sales of more than $15 billion, despite the LOE of Stelara.

J&J expects growth in the fourth quarter to be driven by higher sales of key products, such as Darzalex, Tremfya and Erleada, due to strong market growth and share gains. While sales of some other drugs like Xarelto and Simponi/Simponi Aria are likely to have risen, rapid adoption of new drugs like Carvykti, Tecvayli, Talvey, Rybrevant plus Lazcluze and Spravato are also expected to have contributed to growth.

However, generic/biosimilar competition for key drug, Stelara, and lower sales of Imbruvica, are likely to have hurt top-line growth.

Several biosimilar versions of Stelara were launched in the United States in 2025. According to patent settlements and license agreements, Amgen AMGN, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz and some other companies launched Stelara biosimilars in 2025. The Stelara LOE negatively impacted the Innovative Medicines segment growth by 1070 basis points in the third quarter. We expect the negative impact to have been steeper in the fourth quarter as the number of biosimilar entrants is expected to have increased.

Rising competitive pressure in the United States due to new oral competition is likely to have hurt sales of Imbruvica.  Sales of some drugs are being hurt by the impact of the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Among other measures, the IRA requires the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to effectively set prices for certain single-source drugs and biologics reimbursed under Medicare Part B and Part D. The Part D redesign has been mainly hurting sales of drugs like Stelara, Imbruvica, Erleada and pulmonary hypertension drugs.

Investors will look for initial sales numbers of J&J’s newly approved drug, Imaavy (nipocalimab). Imaavy was approved for treating generalized myasthenia gravis in the United States in April and in the EU in December. Another newly added drug, Caplyta, was approved for a new indication, major depressive disorder, in November.

Our estimates for the Innovative Medicines unit suggest a CAGR of around 5% over the next three years.

J&J Key Competitors

Immunology and oncology are J&J’s key areas. Other large drugmakers with a strong presence in the oncology market include Novartis, AstraZeneca AZN, AbbVie ABBV, Amgen, Merck, Bristol-Myers, Roche and Pfizer. In immunology, AbbVie, Amgen, Sanofi, AstraZeneca and Pfizer hold a strong position.

JNJ’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

J&J’s shares have outperformed the industry in the past year. The stock has risen 45.9% in the past year compared with an 18.4% increase for the industry.

From a valuation standpoint, J&J is slightly expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 18.03 forward earnings, higher than 17.54 for the industry. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 15.65.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has risen from $11.47 per share to $11.49 per share over the past 60 days.

J&J has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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