Will MSCI Crypto Exclusion Plans Boost Strategy's Near-Term View?

Strategy Inc. MSTR received a noticeable boost after MSCI decided not to move forward with plans to exclude companies holding large digital-asset treasuries from its stock indexes. The decision removes a key near-term risk that had weighed on Strategy’s stock.

Following the announcement, Strategy shares rose about 6% in after-hours trading, a meaningful rebound after the stock had slumped roughly 47.5% in 2025. The reaction underscores how sensitive the company is to index-related developments, given its heavy exposure to Bitcoin.

MSCI clarified that instead of implementing an immediate exclusion, it will conduct a broader review of how digital-asset-holding companies are treated in its indexes. This is especially important for Strategy, which holds one of the largest bitcoin positions among publicly traded firms.

Importantly, MSCI also confirmed that Digital Asset Treasury Companies will remain included in MSCI indexes through the February 2026 review. This assurance reduces near-term uncertainty around index eligibility and provides greater visibility for companies like Strategy over the coming quarters.

By stepping back, MSCI has removed a key near-term risk. Continued index inclusion preserves MSTR’s visibility among institutional investors, supports passive-fund demand and reduces forced selling risk. This added stability matters as the company recently reported a massive $17.44 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings in the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting the volatility tied to its strategy.

Despite the possibility of future review beyond February 2026, MSCI’s pause strengthens investor confidence and improves Strategy’s short-term investment outlook.

Growing Crypto Rivalry Puts Pressure on MSTR

Coinbase Global COIN competes with Strategy by offering investors indirect exposure to Bitcoin through its trading-driven business model. While its core revenues stem from transaction fees, staking and custody services, Coinbase has also expanded its own bitcoin holdings. During the third quarter of 2025, COIN added $299 million in Bitcoin, taking total investment and collateral crypto assets to $3.6 billion as of Sept. 30, 2025, strengthening its position as a BTC-linked alternative to MSTR.

MARA Holdings MARA competes with Strategy using a differentiated crypto model that blends large-scale Bitcoin mining with strategic accumulation. This dual approach allows MARA to generate bitcoin internally while supplementing holdings through purchases. With 52,850 BTC on its balance sheet at the end of the third quarter of 2025, MARA demonstrates significant scale. Its push into the data-center segment further supports earnings stability by offsetting crypto-driven volatility.

MSTR’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Over the past year, Strategy shares have plunged 51.2%, underperforming the Zacks Finance sector’s 19.2% rise and the Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry’s 9.2% fall.

MSTR’s One Year Price Performance

MSTR has a Value Score of F. It is currently trading at a Price/Book ratio of 0.89X compared to the sector’s 4.4X.

MSTR’s Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $51.60 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, and implies a 33.88% year-over-year decline.

MSTR stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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