BMO Lowers Vistra (VST) Target to $230 but Keeps Outperform Rating

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) is one of the AI Stocks Analysts Are Watching Closely. On January 6, BMO Capital analyst James Thalacker lowered the price target on the stock to $230.00 (from $245.00) while maintaining its “Outperform” rating.

The lowered target follows Vistra’s Cogentrix deal, with the firm positive  on the stock as it sees Vistra’s long-term cash growth intact.

The firm discussed Vistra’s recent agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, comprising 10 natural gas-fired power plants, from Quantum Capital Group for about $4.7 billion, to meet growing power demand.

The deal, worth an estimated $4 billion, includes a $2.3bn cash consideration/~$0.9bn of Vistra stock (priced at $185/share), and the assumption of an estimated $1.5 billion of debt at Cogentrix, net of expected tax benefits with an estimated NPV of approximately $0.7 billion.

Vistra anticipates the deal to close mid-to-late 2026, according to the announcement.

“We raise our 2027-2030 adj. EBITDA estimates to/from $8,204/$7,652bn, $8,334/$7,725bn, $8,510/$7,869bn, and FCFbG to/from $4,814/$4,523bn, $5,027/$4,580bn, and $5,245/$4,694bn. Our target price moves to $230. Reiterate Outperform.”

While we acknowledge the potential of VST as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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