PNC Financial's Q4 Earnings on the Deck: Here's What to Expect

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 16, before market open. Its revenues and earnings are expected to have improved on a year-over-year basis.

In the third quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by higher net interest income (NII) and fee income. Further, rising loan and deposit balances, along with a decline in provisions for credit losses, supported the results. However, higher expenses acted as a headwind.

PNC has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 8.26%.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Price and EPS Surprise

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc price-eps-surprise | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc Quote

Factors to Impact PNC Financial’s Q4 Earnings

NII & Loan: In the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice. Along with the rate cut in September, this brought the benchmark rate down to the 3.50–3.75% range. Hence, easing funding/deposit costs is likely to have supported PNC Financial’s NII in the fourth quarter.

Management expects NII to rise approximately 1.5% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII of $3.71 billion indicates a sequential rise of nearly 1.7%. Our projection for NII is pegged at $3.70 billion.

Per the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial, real estate and consumer loans was solid in the first two months of the quarter. As such, the company’s lending activity is expected to have strengthened in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company expects average loans to remain stable to up 1% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025. Our projection for the average loan is the same as the company guidance.

Non-Interest Revenues: Mortgage rates declined meaningfully during the fourth quarter compared with levels seen at the beginning of 2025, primarily driven by the Fed’s monetary policy easing. However, refinancing activity and origination volumes have not witnessed significant growth. As such, PNC’s mortgage-related revenues are likely to have remained under pressure in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the residential and commercial mortgage revenues is pegged at $139.8 million, indicating a decline of 13.2% sequentially. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $143 million.

Further, the quarter witnessed solid client activity and heightened market volatility, driven by factors such as the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, easing monetary policy and shifting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, equity market performance remained volatile. As a result, PNC Financial’s asset management and brokerage income is likely to have benefited from increased client engagement and trading activity during the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $410.5 million, indicating a 1.61% rise sequentially. We project asset management and brokerage income to be $410.7 million.

Global mergers and acquisitions activity strengthened significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025, rebounding from the lows seen in April and May following President Trump’s announcement of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plans. As corporates adapted to the rapidly evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic scenarios, deal-making activity accelerated. As a result, PNC’s capital markets and advisory revenues are likely to have witnessed some improvement in the quarter to be reported.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s capital markets and advisory income of $427.91 million indicates a nearly 1% sequential decline. We project the metric to be $390.5 million.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for card and cash management revenues is pinned at $740 million, indicating a sequential marginal rise. The consensus mark for lending and deposit services is pegged at $333.9 million, indicating a slight decline from the prior quarter’s actual.

Management expects fee income to decline around 3% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-interest income is pegged at $2.21 billion, indicating a 2.3% decline from the last quarter. Our projection for the metric is the same as the consensus estimate.

Expenses: The company’s expenses are expected to have continued flaring up during the fourth quarter due to its investments in franchise expansion, technology and digitalization.

Management expects adjusted non-interest expenses to rise 1%–2% sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $3.52 billion.

Asset Quality: PNC Financial is likely to have kept higher reserves at this time, primarily in commercial lending, given a slowdown in job growth, which could pressure consumer demand, leading to higher delinquencies.

Management expects net charge-offs to be around $200-$225 million, up from $179 million in the third quarter of 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets (NPAs) is pegged at $2.36 billion, indicating an increase of 2.8% from the previous quarter. Also, the consensus estimate for non-performing loans (NPLs) is pinned at $2.29 billion, implying a sequential rise of 7%. Our estimates for NPAs and NPLs are $2.23 billion and $2.17 billion, respectively. We expect provisions for credit losses to be $208.8 million, indicating a sequential rise of 1.5%.

What Our Model Unveils for PNC

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for PNC Financial this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: PNC Financial has an Earnings ESP of +0.28%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

PNC Financial’s Q4 Earnings & Sales Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has been revised upward to $4.23 over the past seven days. This implies a year-over-year rise of 12.2%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues of $5.96 billion indicates a 7.1% year-over-year increase. PNC projects total revenues to remain stable to down 1% in the fourth quarter from $5.9 billion reported in the third quarter of 2025.

PNC’s 2025 Outlook

The company anticipates full-year NII to increase 6.5% year over year. Average loans are expected to rise 1% year over year to $319.8 billion.

PNC expects non-interest income to grow 4%–5% year over year from the $8.1 billion reported in 2024. The company also expects total revenue to rise 6% year over year from the $21.6 billion reported in 2024.

For full-year 2025, adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to increase approximately 1.5% year over year, driven by continued investments in technology, digital initiatives and branch expansion.

PNC’s Recent Development

Earlier this month, PNC Financial completed its previously announced acquisition of FirstBank Holding Company, including its banking subsidiary, FirstBank, after receiving all required regulatory approvals. The transaction meaningfully strengthens PNC’s footprint in Colorado and Arizona, two of the fastest-growing banking markets in the United States.

The acquisition adds approximately $26.8 billion in assets and 95 branches, more than tripling PNC’s branch network in Colorado to around 120 locations. In Denver, PNC now ranks as the leading bank by both retail deposit share (about 20%) and branch share (roughly 14%), making it one of the company’s largest commercial and business banking markets.

In Arizona, the transaction expands PNC’s network to more than 70 branches, including 13 FirstBank locations, enhancing opportunities across commercial, corporate and private banking.

Other Bank Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

The Earnings ESP for KeyCorp KEY is +1.20% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 20, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for KEY's quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 38 cents per share.

The Bank of New York Mellon BK is also scheduled to announce fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 13, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Quarterly earnings estimates for BK have been revised upward to $1.97 per share over the past week.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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