Q4 Earnings Season Gets Off To a Solid Start

Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>

Here are the key points:

• Total earnings for the 25 S&P 500 members that have reported Q4 results are up +17.9% from the same period last year on +7.8% higher revenues, with 88% beating EPS estimates and 72% beating revenue estimates.

• The Q4 earnings and revenue growth pace at this stage represents a clear acceleration from what we had seen from this same group of companies in the first three quarters of 2025. With respect to the beats percentages, the EPS beats percentage is in line with the 20-quarter average for this group of companies, but revenue beats are tracking below average.

• The outlook for corporate earnings has been improving in recent quarters, as reflected in steadily rising earnings estimates. As the 2025 Q4 earnings season ramps up in the coming days, the market will be looking for this favorable trend to not only remain in place but actually expand beyond the few key sectors where it has been concentrated lately.

• Looking at 2025 Q4 as a whole, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be up +8.5% from the same period last year on +8.2% higher revenues. This will be the 10^th quarter of back-to-back positive earnings growth for the index.

Making Sense of Bank Stocks After Q4 Results

The market’s reaction to results from JPMorgan JPM, Bank of America BAC, Citigroup C, and others would suggest a disappointing showing from these banking leaders. We don’t think the banks’ Q4 results or comments about the outlook are negative and see these stocks’ post-release weakness in a ‘sell-the-news’ type of framework, particularly after their recent outperformance.

Citigroup shares have been particularly hot over the past year, handily outperforming its peers and the broader market as investors gain more confidence in the new management team’s restructuring and repositioning plans. Market participants had been justifiably skeptical earlier on, as Citigroup appeared unable to turn its fortunes around over the years. Unlike Citigroup, JPMorgan shares benefited from its reputation for operating excellence and industry leadership.

We should keep in mind, however, that Citi, Bank of America, and JPMorgan shares had been losing ground since the start of the New Year, with the Q4 earnings results adding to the downtrend.

The chart below shows the one-year performance of JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America shares relative to the S&P 500 index.

Management teams’ macroeconomic commentary has been reassuring, with favorable consumer spending and stable credit quality trends. The outlook for loan demand and investment banking advisory services remains positive, though growth has longer to arrive as a result of policy uncertainty, like tariffs and the Fed. Headlines about the administration’s credit card plans remain headwinds, but the overall outlook remains positive.  

The table below shows ‘blended’ Q4 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the constituent Finance sector industries. The Investment Brokers & Managers industry includes JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and others, and accounts for roughly two-thirds of the sector’s total earnings.

The chart below shows the Finance sector’s growth picture on a quarterly basis.

The Earnings Big Picture

The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q4 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.

The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.

The Tech sector has an outsized role in the S&P 500 index. The sector is expected to bring 35.9% of the index’s total earnings over the coming four-quarter period and currently accounts for 43.1% of the index’s total market capitalization. The Tech sector’s positive estimate revision trend is a major reason its members enjoy a strong market following and support.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research