Global mining mergers and acquisitions are accelerating, and the trend has overwhelmingly targeted Latin America, according to McKinsey’s latest research. Of the roughly $30 billion in global mining M&A recorded in the first three quarters of the year, 74% went toward Latin American assets.
Fueling the Commodity Cycle
The consultancy firm published these results in the Future Minerals Barometer Report. It was a study developed in partnership with the Future Minerals Forum, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global AI, and Globe Scan.
The report found that mining deal values in Latin America have skyrocketed by more than 200% since 2021. The trend of capital chasing hard assets aligns with what many industry executives see as an ongoing commodity supercycle.
Latin America’s allure is understandable. The region has geology, scale, and relevance. It hosts some of the world’s largest copper endowments, led by Chile and Peru. Also, it became a core pillar of global lithium supply through Argentina’s rapidly expanding brine projects and favorable business climate under Javier Milei’s administration.
The Copper Rush
While lithium prices have collapsed since the 2022 bubble burst, copper tells a very different story. Structural deficits, driven by electrification, grid expansion, and electric vehicles, are pushing miners to lock in long-life copper assets before shortages become acute.
Those dynamics are already visible. In the past few years, mega-deal speculation and attempted consolidation have marked the sector. BHP Group Limited’s (NYSE:BHP) failed bid for Anglo American Plc (OTCQX:AAUKF) showed the scarcity of tier-one copper assets. Anglo’s ongoing merger with Teck Resources Limited (NYSE:TECK) would create one of the world’s largest copper producers if completed.
Meanwhile, market chatter continues around a potential $200 billion tie-up between Glencore Plc (OTCPK: GLCNF) and Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:RIO) — a deal that, if realized, would further concentrate control over copper-rich portfolios, many of them anchored in Latin America.
The data also shows that the surge into Latin America contrasts sharply with capital flight elsewhere. Since 2021, Africa has seen mining deal values fall by nearly 80% as investors retreat from jurisdictions perceived as higher risk. Barrick Mining Corporation’s (NYSE:B) recent issues in Mali and Orano’s loss of assets in Niger best show how quickly the situation can escalate.
Separate research from law firm Dentons reinforces the findings. Its team found that the past 18 months marked a clear shift not just in the scale of mining transactions, but also in their frequency.
Unlike previous M&A cycles, which focused on rising prices, today’s deals face strategic urgency. Securing commodity supply for the industrial sector, managing geopolitical risk, and positioning portfolios for the energy transition.
Price Watch: iShares MSCI Global Select Metals & Mining Producers ETF (BATS:PICK) is up 58.75% over the past year.
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