Bill Gates once mentioned that his approach to uncertainty and risk resembles Warren Buffett's, built on deep analysis, long-term horizons, and a high tolerance for not knowing exactly how things will play out.
Gates Redefines Risk Through Careful, Calculated Bets
In a 2019 blog post prompted by the Netflix documentary "Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates," the Microsoft co-founder said a major theme of the series is his readiness to pour time and money into projects that have no guaranteed payoff.
"Watching the series got me thinking about what the word ‘risk' really means," Gates wrote. "Whether we invest $100,000 or $100 million, the decision is always calculated. I spend a lot of time thinking, analyzing data and talking to experts to judge whether we can really help make a difference."
Gates said that even with exhaustive analysis, it's crucial to be comfortable with uncertainty. "We are tackling problems where progress is measured not just in years, but often decades — where your end goal doesn't change, but your path to get there might have to," he wrote, adding that his way of staying calm in that environment is to keep learning and remain open to new strategies that bring him closer to his goals.
Buffett-Inspired Focus On Big, Long-Term Investment Bets
"Ultimately," Gates said, his philosophy is "very similar to what Warren Buffett does when he makes an investment on a bet, that it will be worth 10 times as much down the road." Buffett looks for companies with "great long-term prospects," makes big, concentrated bets and holds them through "market gyrations and economic cycles," Gates noted.
Like Buffett, Gates said he picks his own "big bets" carefully by asking whether success would materially improve lives for generations. He wrote that he is "never happier than when I'm diving deep into the details of a problem," but added that "I also feel pressure to make every dollar and every day count" and says no to far more opportunities than he accepts.
Obama And Zuckerberg Echo Comfort With Uncertainty
Other leaders have echoed the value of becoming comfortable with risk and failure. Former President Barack Obama described in a podcast in 2015 that gaining experience in office is a process where "you lose fear" after "screwed up" moments and still come out the other side.
Similarly, Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), has said that "in a world that's changing so quickly, the biggest risk you can take is not taking any risk," warning that staying stagnant is "guaranteed to fail."
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