Morgan Stanley Raises Mosaic (MOS) Target as Potash Outlook Improves for 2026

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is included among the 15 Dividend Growth Stocks with the Highest Growth Rates.

On January 14, Morgan Stanley lifted its price target on The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) to $35 from $33 and kept an Equal Weight rating. The firm said it is feeling more positive on potash after running a fresh supply-and-demand check. Morgan Stanley now expects potash prices to climb moderately in 2026 versus 2025, helped by a tight global market where effective capacity utilization stays above 90% until at least 2028.

However, Mosaic’s own update a couple of days later painted a tougher near-term picture. On January 16, the company warned that fertilizer demand in North America dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, and that weakness hit both sales and cash flow. The stock slid about 4% in morning trading after the announcement.

Mosaic said demand softened because many farmers cut back on fertilizer use as budgets tightened. On top of that, winter arrived early, shortening the window for product application and limiting seasonal volumes. The phosphate side was particularly pressured. Mosaic noted that phosphate products were less affordable than potash during the quarter, which made the market especially difficult. North American phosphate shipments fell about 20% from a year ago, while potash demand held up better and was only slightly weaker.

That shift is showing up in the company’s volume expectations. The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) said Q4 phosphate sales were about 1.3 million tonnes, below its earlier forecast of 1.7 million to 1.9 million tonnes. Potash sales of around 2.2 million tonnes were also below its prior range of 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes.

Brazil was also challenging. Mosaic said tighter credit conditions and heavier competition squeezed demand and margins, including pressure from imports of lower-analysis phosphate coming out of China. Because of that, volumes at its Mosaic Fertilizantes unit came in well below internal plans for the quarter.

For the full year 2025, Mosaic reported sales volumes of roughly 9 million tonnes, essentially flat year over year, though the company said this still reflected a broader downturn in the market. Mosaic is scheduled to release full Q4 results on February 24.

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is a major producer and marketer of crop nutrients, with its business centered on concentrated phosphate and potash products.

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