Natural Gas Prices Spike Nearly 20% As Arctic Cold Slams US

U.S. natural gas prices surged on Monday after a sharp shift in late-January weather forecasts pointed to a much colder-than-normal stretch across large parts of the country.

Futures tied to the Henry Hub rose nearly 20% to around $3.70 per MMBtu, rebounding from a thirteen-week low near $3.10 reached just days earlier. The move marked the largest one-day gain since October 2024 and the second biggest since September 2020.

Arctic Air Drives Heating Demand Fears

The catalyst was an intensifying Arctic outbreak forecast to spill south from Canada into the central and eastern United States.

According to the National Weather Service, "rounds of shortwave energy rotating around the base of an upper low centered over Hudson Bay will generate frigid and gusty westerly flow over the Great Lakes."

As a result, lake-effect snow showers are expected to develop, with "generally accumulations of around 8–12 inches likely" and isolated higher totals possible by midweek.

Temperatures across much of the Midwest are forecast to remain in the single digits to below zero, running 20 to 30 degrees below average. Clear skies across the Southeast are also contributing to sharply colder nights, prompting freeze warnings for portions of southern Georgia into northern and central Florida.

The colder outlook is expected to significantly boost heating demand and electricity generation needs.

The The Weather Channel reported that more than 200 million people across the U.S. are forecast to experience below-freezing temperatures, with wind chills plunging to 20 to 30 degrees below zero in parts of Minnesota.

Which US Stocks Could Rally Tuesday?

With Wall Street closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, natural gas-linked stocks could react when markets reopen. Names closely tied to gas production and pricing include EQT Corp. (NYSE:EQT), Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE:CPK), Antero Resources Corp. (NYSE:AR), and Range Resources Corp. (NYSE:RRC).