OKLO Pulls Back 10% After META Deal - What Investors Missed

Oklo Inc. OKLO has been one of the most volatile energy stocks heading into 2026. Shares jumped sharply after a major agreement with Meta Platforms META, then pulled back as some of those gains faded. The recent decline has pushed investors to reconsider whether the rally moved too far ahead of the company’s fundamentals or if this is simply a pause in a longer-term story around advanced nuclear power.

That debate follows a major credibility boost for OKLO, which secured a large nuclear power deal with META despite still being a pre-revenue company. The combination of long-term potential and near-term uncertainty helps explain why the stock continues to see sharp price swings.

Overview of the META Agreement

The agreement with the social media giant marked a turning point for OKLO’s long-term narrative. Under the deal, OKLO will develop a 1.2-gigawatt advanced nuclear power campus in Pike County, OH, designed to support META’s growing data center and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Pre-construction and site characterization activities are expected to begin in 2026, with the first phase potentially operational around 2030 and full delivery targeted by 2034.

Beyond the scale, the structure of the agreement is notable. META has included a prepayment mechanism that provides upfront funding, allowing OKLO to secure nuclear fuel and advance early development milestones. This arrangement reduces project uncertainty and improves capital visibility, helping OKLO move its Aurora powerhouse technology closer to commercialization.

META’s broader push into nuclear energy reinforces the importance of the deal. Alongside OKLO, META has partnered with other nuclear players to secure firm, carbon-free power, underscoring how critical reliable energy has become for data centers. This industry backdrop strengthens the strategic relevance of OKLO’s agreement.

OKLO’s Recent Share Price Movement

OKLO shares jumped more than 45% earlier in the month following news of the META agreement, as investors welcomed the validation of the nuclear startup’s technology and business model. That surge was followed by a pullback of about 10% between Jan. 9 and Jan. 16, reflecting a period of cooling after the initial excitement.

The move also needs to be viewed in a broader context. OKLO is still up roughly 265% over the past year, but it remains down about 40% over the past three months. These wide swings underscore how sentiment-driven the stock can be, especially given its early-stage nature and the long path to meaningful revenues.

Drivers of the Pullback

The recent pullback looks more like profit-taking than a sign of weakening fundamentals. After the sharp rally tied to the META deal, some investors likely took gains off the table, especially since full commercialization is still years away.

Crucially, there has been no change to the project timeline or to the importance of the META agreement itself. The decline instead highlights that OKLO’s valuation already assumes a lot of future success, making the stock more vulnerable to short-term swings in investor sentiment.

OKLO’s Business Risk Profile and Earnings History

Despite the strategic progress, OKLO remains a high-risk investment. The company is pre-revenue and reported a loss of 20 cents per share in the third quarter of 2025. Earnings estimates remain negative, with losses expected to widen before narrowing when licensing and construction milestones are achieved.

OKLO’s earnings history has also been uneven. The company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings miss of roughly 20%. This lack of consistency contributes to volatility and underscores the execution risks still facing the business.

From a valuation standpoint, OKLO has traded over 12 times book value despite having no commercial revenues. That compares unfavorably with established nuclear operators, such as Constellation Energy CEG, which generates billions in annual revenues and maintains a more grounded valuation profile. Unlike OKLO, Constellation Energy benefits from stable earnings and existing cash flows, highlighting the speculative nature of Oklo’s current pricing.

Investor Perspective

For long-term investors, the META agreement helps reduce uncertainty around future demand and funding, and strengthens OKLO’s position as a credible name in advanced nuclear power. Demand for clean, reliable electricity from large data centers is rising, and partnerships with major technology companies like META help confirm Oklo’s long-term potential.

That said, near-term volatility is likely to continue. OKLO is still pre-revenue, faces ongoing losses, and trades at a valuation that leaves little room for mistakes. In contrast, companies like Constellation Energy offer exposure to nuclear energy with far less development risk, while META’s own aggressive nuclear strategy underscores how capital-intensive and long-dated these projects can be.

Is OKLO a Smart Buy or Risky Move?

Looking ahead to 2026, OKLO represents a high-upside but high-risk investment tied to the future of advanced nuclear power. The META agreement has clearly strengthened the long-term story, but recent price action shows that enthusiasm can fade quickly when expectations run ahead of fundamentals. With an uneven earnings history, ongoing losses, and a valuation that already reflects significant optimism, patience remains essential. At this stage, OKLO stock is best viewed as a wait-and-see opportunity and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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