Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Amplitude, Inc. on r/Valueinvesting by OneOneCap. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AMPL. Amplitude, Inc.'s share was trading at $9.95 as of January 16th. AMPL’s forward P/E was 60.24 according to Yahoo Finance.

Amplitude, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a digital analytics platform that analyzes customer behavior in the United States and internationally. Over the past month, Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) has attracted attention for its pioneering role in AI-driven product and business analytics, positioning itself as a potential market leader similar to how Cursor transformed software engineering.

AMPL’s platform allows marketing and engineering teams to optimize digital products by analyzing user behavior and business outcomes, with a $347 million ARR growing 16% year-over-year across 653 enterprise customers. Net retention recently improved to 104%, reflecting both solid customer engagement and expanding account usage.

The company is integrating advanced AI capabilities that iteratively query data to surface insights users may not even know to look for, unlocking a fundamental shift in analytics behavior. Historically, teams were constrained by pre-defined metrics, but AMPL’s AI lowers the perceived cost of tracking more events while increasing value, driving higher revenue under its metered pricing model. Adoption is progressing methodically, with AI infrastructure rolled out to general availability first, followed by AI Agents moving from private to public beta, demonstrating execution discipline.

CEO Spenser Skates has emphasized measured management and strategic focus, suggesting the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the transformative potential of AI in analytics. The stock, currently trapped in a three-year base between $9 and $13 following its 2021 IPO at $50, could see a major re-rating once the market fully recognizes AI’s impact on AMPL’s growth trajectory and bottom line. Investors will be watching upcoming earnings for adoption metrics, net new ARR, and net retention to validate the thesis, which presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity given the company’s growth potential, disciplined execution, and market-leading AI innovation.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL) by sketchfag in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in product-led growth, strong enterprise adoption, and AI-driven analytics. AMPL’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 31.09% since our coverage due to market hesitation. OneOneCap shares a similar thesis but emphasizes advanced AI integration and iterative data querying as the key growth catalyst.

Amplitude, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 27 hedge fund portfolios held AMPL at the end of the third quarter which was 28 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of AMPL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.