Northern Trust Set to Announce Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and 2025 results on Jan. 22, 2026, before market open. The company’s quarterly earnings and revenues are expected to have increased year over year.

In the last reported quarter, the bank delivered an earnings surprise. NTRS results benefited from a rise in net interest income. Also, an increase in total assets under custody and assets under management balances supported the financials. However, elevated expenses and reduced other fee income were concerning.

Northern Trust has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 4.58%.

Northern Trust Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Northern Trust Corporation price-eps-surprise | Northern Trust Corporation Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS’ fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward over the past month to $2.37 per share. The figure indicates a 4.9% increase from the year-ago reported number.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.07 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 5.8%

Key Factors & Estimates for NTRS’ Q4 Results

NII & Loans: In the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice. This, along with a rate cut in September, lowered rates to 3.50-3.75%. As such, NTRS’ NII is expected to have witnessed growth in the to-be-reported quarter, given stabilizing funding costs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $600.8 million for the to-be-reported quarter, indicating a 6.6% rise on a year-over-year basis.

Also, per the Fed’s latest data, the overall lending scenario was robust in the fourth quarter. Thus, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in loan demand, which is expected to have supported its average interest-earning asset growth in the quarter under review.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $142.5 billion, indicating a 29% rise from the prior-year quarter.

Non-Interest Income: Northern Trust calculates its asset servicing and wealth management servicing fees using a lag effect, relying on prior-quarter end valuations for these computations. Asset servicing fees comprise custody and fund administration, investment management, securities lending and other fees.

The equity market performance was decent in the fourth quarter. As such, NTRS is likely to have witnessed growth in custody and fund administration revenues, as well as its investment management fees.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for custody and fund administration fees is pegged at $488.7 million, indicating an 6.9% rise on a year-over-year basis.

The consensus estimate for investment management fees is $167.4 million, implying a 6.7% rise from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total wealth management fees is pegged at $580.7 million, indicating a 6.2% rise from the year-earlier quarter.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for other operating income is pegged at $59.2 million, indicating a 1.1% decline on a year-over-year basis.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee income is pegged at $1.47 billion, suggesting a 5% increase from the prior-year quarter.

Expenses: The company’s expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the fourth quarter due to higher compensation costs and continued investments in equipment and software to modernize its technology infrastructure and strengthen operational resiliency.

Asset Quality: We expect the company to keep a decent reserve this time, given a slowdown in job growth, which could weigh on consumer demand, leading to higher delinquencies.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing assets in the fourth quarter is pegged at $82.9 million, indicating a 48% jump on a year over year basis.

What the Zacks Model Reveals for NTRS

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Northern Trust this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for NTRS is -0.38%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Performance of Other Banks

BOK Financial Corporation's BOKF fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted net income per share of $2.48 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.13. The bottom line increased 16.9% from the prior-year quarter.

BOKF’s results benefited from higher NII and total fees and commissions. An increase in loans and deposit balances was another positive. However, the increase in operating expenses was a major undermining factor.

First Horizon Corporation’s FHN fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 52 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents. This compares favorably with 43 cents in the year-ago quarter.

FHN’s results benefited from higher NII and a significant rise in non-interest income, along with the absence of provision for credit losses. However, the rise in expenses remains a headwind.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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