Union Pacific to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Union Pacific Corporation UNP is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 27, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 1.7% in the past 60 days to $2.89 per share. However, the consensus mark implies 0.7% fall compared with the year-ago actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNP’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.14 billion, indicating 0.3% growth year over year.

United Pacific has an impressive earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (lagged in the remaining quarter), the average beat being 2.86%.

Union Pacific Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Union Pacific Corporation price-eps-surprise | Union Pacific Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Union Pacific this earnings season.

Factors to Note Ahead of UNP’s Q4 Earnings Release

The Zacks consensus estimate for freight revenues (which accounts for the majority portion of total revenues) is pegged at $5.82 billion, which indicates an increase of 0.6% from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals. However, the consensus mark for other revenues is pegged at $319.31 million, implying a 3.8% decrease from fourth-quarter 2024 actuals.

UNP’s efforts to cut costs to combat the revenue weakness (due to the freight market downturn) are expected to have aided bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Due to cost cuts and improved operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses to decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the year-ago actuals.

On the contrary, geopolitical uncertainty, tariff-related pressures and persistent inflation are likely to have weighed on UNP’s operations. These headwinds may have caused volatility in passenger traffic and, in turn, limited the airline’s ability to maintain strong yields and consistent revenue growth.

What Our Model Says About UNP

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of -1.26% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Highlights of UNP’s Q3 Earnings

Union Pacific's third-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 7 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.08 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.99. The bottom line improved 12% on a year-over-year basis due to strong operational efficiency.

Operating revenues of $6.2 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.2% and improved 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, owing to solid core pricing gains.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Canadian National Railway CNI has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present, and is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 1.43% at $1.42 per share over the past 60 days. CNI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice in the remaining, the average miss was 0.1%. 

United Parcel Service UPS has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.  UPS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.29% upward over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 11.2%. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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