Why Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Is Dropping Tuesday

Shares of Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) are trading lower on Tuesday. The decline follows President Donald Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff, effective Feb. 1, on goods imported from eight European nations, including the Netherlands, amid escalating diplomatic tensions over the U.S. bid to acquire Greenland.

• Super Micro Computer shares are retreating from recent levels. Why is SMCI stock dropping?

How Tariffs Could Inflate SMCI’s Costs

While the broader market is reacting to renewed trade war fears, SMCI faces a unique and direct threat: its significant operational footprint in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands. Unlike many competitors who rely primarily on Asian supply chains, Supermicro utilizes this Dutch facility as a critical manufacturing and logistics hub to serve global markets.

The proposed tariffs specifically target goods sent to the U.S. from the Netherlands, France, Germany and the UK, creating an immediate risk of rising costs for any inventory or components Supermicro routes through its European operations back to its U.S. headquarters.

Investors are particularly sensitive to this disruption as SMCI is already navigating tight margins. The potential for a 10% levy on Dutch imports adds a tangible layer of expense to the company's supply chain, compounding concerns over profitability.

Bearish Trends Signal Caution Ahead

The stock is currently trading 5.3% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 9.8% below its 100-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 2.73% and are positioned closer to their 52-week lows than highs.

The RSI is at a neutral level, suggesting that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD is below its signal line, indicating bearish pressure on the stock.

The combination of neutral RSI and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum.

• Key Resistance: $32.00
• Key Support: $29.00

Earnings Forecasts Signal Divergent Trends

Investors are looking ahead to the next earnings report on Feb. 10.

• EPS Estimate: 45 cents (Down from 51 cents YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $10.38 billion (Up from $5.68 billion YoY)
• Valuation: P/E of 25.7x (Indicates premium valuation)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $43.56. Recent analyst moves include:

• Goldman Sachs: Sell (Target $26.00) (Jan. 13)
• Mizuho: Neutral (Lowered Target to $31.00) (Jan. 9)
• B of A Securities: Sell (Target $34.00) (Dec. 2, 2025)

Valuation Insight: While the stock trades at a premium P/E multiple, the consensus and 12% expected earnings decline suggest analysts view this growth as justification for the 38% upside to analyst targets.

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Super Micro Computer, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

• Value: Strong (Score: 75.19/100) — The stock is reasonably valued compared to peers.
• Quality: Solid (Score: 96.89/100) — The balance sheet remains healthy.
• Momentum: Weak (Score: 6.11/100) — The stock is underperforming the broader market.

The Verdict: Super Micro Computer’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a mixed outlook. While the strong Quality score indicates a solid financial foundation, the weak Momentum score suggests that investors should be cautious as the stock struggles to gain traction.

Top ETF Exposure

• Schwab Fundamental US Small Company Index ETF (NYSE:FNDA): 0.30% Weight
• Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF (NASDAQ:SMCX): 27.39% Weight
• SPDR FactSet Innovative Technology ETF (NYSE:XITK): 1.65% Weight

Significance: Because SMCI carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

Super Micro Shares Slide

SMCI Price Action: Super Micro Computer shares were down 3.31% at $31.56 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.