My Top 5 Predictions for Palantir in 2026

Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) entered 2026 with an impressive financial and operating profile, supported by a multi-billion-dollar revenue base, rapidly expanding profit margins, record bookings, and an accelerating ramp of its artificial intelligence platform.

The company's artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, which emphasizes production-grade deployments that solve real-world enterprise problems rather than lengthy pilot projects, is also driving larger deal sizes and faster customer expansion across government and commercial segments.

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Against this backdrop, here are my five data-backed predictions about Palantir's business and stock for 2026.

1. AIP will drive deal volume and size

Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has positioned itself as an operational layer for enterprise AI deployments, rather than a narrow analytics tool. This means that AIP is used not only to provide answers and generate insights but also to interact with multiple large language models (LLMs) and multimodal models, govern data flows, manage access, and enable AI-driven automations and actions within predefined rules and organizational structures.

I expect this "operational AI" positioning to translate into higher deal volume and larger deal size for Palantir in 2026, as AIP contracts that start with a few use cases may expand into multi-function and multi-department engagements. Palantir seems to already be benefiting from this trend, with the company closing 204 deals worth over $1 million, including 53 deals worth over $10 million, in the third quarter of fiscal 2025.

As AIP becomes deeply entrenched in organizational infrastructure, Palantir will have a stickier client base and even more follow-on expansion opportunities as agents, automations, and models are added over time.

2. U.S. commercial drives the next leg of growth

Palantir is no longer a purely government-focused company. In the third quarter, U.S. commercial revenues soared 121% year over year to $397 million, and AIP played a crucial role in driving customer expansions and acquisitions.

U.S. commercial business could remain a primary growth engine in 2026, though a triple-digit growth rate may moderate over time. The company's "bootcamps" based go-to-market strategy involves demonstrating AIP's production-level value in short, hands-on engagements. This strategy has significantly shortened the company's commercial sales cycle. Hence, the company's commercial revenues are well-positioned to continue ramping faster than government revenues.

3. Government contracts will be larger and of longer duration

Palantir's government business may be growing more slowly than its commercial business, but it may become an increasingly important source of long-duration, high-visibility revenues in 2026. Defense and intelligence agencies are increasingly adopting software-based command-and-control systems and AI-powered decision-making systems rather than stand-alone analytics tools. This shift is reinforced by rising global defense spending and multi-year modernization programs, which include substantial investments in next-generation command and control programs.

This trend is expected to benefit Palantir's software platforms, which several government agencies already use in production-grade and mission-critical environments. As governments move from pilots to full implementations, the company may win larger, longer-term contracts. Citi analyst Tyler Radke also expects the company's government revenues to grow 51% year over year in 2026, while the bullish growth estimate is over 70%.

4. Palantir will continue posting strong margins

Palantir reported an impressive adjusted operating margin of 51% and a Rule of 40 score of 114% in the third quarter. Management highlighted that while third-quarter revenue grew 63% year over year, headcount increased by only 10% in the same time period. A key driver of the substantial operating leverage is the AI-powered Forward Deployed Engineer (AI-FDE), an AIP-native development agent, which has significantly improved the productivity of delivering and deploying AIP solutions.

With AI FDE, only a small number of human engineers are needed to design, build, and scale production systems. Coupled with the increasing demand for AI-powered decision-making and orchestration services from government and enterprise clients, Palantir seems well-positioned to sustain adjusted operating margins in the mid-40% to low-50% range in 2026.

5. High valuation may keep the stock volatile

Palantir is currently trading at 174 times forward earnings, which is very expensive even for a company with exceptional execution capabilities.

The company has guided for 61% year-over-year revenue growth to about $1.33 billion in the fourth quarter and 53% year-over-year revenue growth to around $4.4 billion in fiscal 2025. While the business is slated to continue performing, the rich valuation exposes the stock to high volatility. Palantir may witness sharp corrections in 2026 if there is an earnings miss or an untoward news event.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.