Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) tapped $88,000 on Wednesday amid heightened geopolitical tensions, though some analysts argue the weakness is temporary rather than structural.
Analyst Says Bitcoin–Gold Divergence Is Cyclical, Not Structural
Crypto trader Ansem said Bitcoin's recent lag relative to gold is driven by cyclical and structural factors, not a breakdown of the long-term thesis.
He attributed the divergence to early Bitcoin holders taking profits, four-year cycle dynamics, and portfolio rebalancing as gold and silver break out of a decade-long consolidation.
According to Ansem, renewed demand from high-net-worth individuals and institutions, is driven by Bitcoin's advantages as a "digital analogue" to gold – namely portability, ease of transfer, and suitability for a digitally native financial system.
He added that privacy-focused assets such as Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) could also benefit from this narrative, with a longer-term valuation potentially approaching one-tenth of Bitcoin's value.
From a technical perspective, Ansem believes Bitcoin is unlikely to trade below its 2021 cycle peak near $69,000.
He views any drop below Michael Saylor's estimated ~$75,000 cost basis as a capitulation-level, generational buying opportunity.
However, he said the broader bullish thesis would be invalidated if Bitcoin fails to make a new all-time high by 2026.
Overall, Ansem described the current Bitcoin–gold gap as "deep value," arguing that sub-$100,000 accumulation will appear obvious in hindsight.
Critics Warn Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Bet Could Amplify Downside Risk
Not everyone agrees with that view. Crypto analyst Crypto Chase pushed back, arguing that Michael Saylor's massive Bitcoin exposure could deter, rather than attract, institutions and high-net-worth investors.
Chase dismissed the idea that a move below Saylor's average entry would trigger healthy capitulation.
He noted that Saylor is extremely unlikely to sell voluntarily and would likely hold his position unless forced by Strategy's (NASDAQ:MSTR) board.
In a worst-case scenario where Strategy were compelled to liquidate, Chase warned that market demand would be insufficient to absorb the supply, potentially leading to a severe crash unless sales were conducted through large OTC deals, possibly involving government entities.
In his view, an actual Saylor sell would be catastrophic for price rather than bullish.
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