Nucor to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

Nucor Corporation NUE is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on Jan. 26.

The U.S. steel giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 31.4%, on average. It posted an earnings surprise of 22.3% in the last reported quarter. NUE is expected to have benefited from favorable steel prices in the fourth quarter. However, seasonality and lower shipment volumes are likely to have impacted its performance. 

Nucor’s shares have gained 42.9% over the past year compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 50.2% growth.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do NUE’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter consolidated revenues for Nucor is currently pegged at $7,768.3 million, indicating a year-over-year rise of 9.8%.

Factors at Play for NUE Stock

Lower segment earnings are likely to have adversely impacted NUE’s performance in the December quarter. Nucor, last month, said that it expects earnings to decrease across all three operating segments compared to the previous quarter due to seasonal factors and fewer shipping days. The steel mills segment is expected to have seen decreased earnings due to lower shipment volumes and margin pressure, particularly in sheet products. 

The steel products segment’s earnings are likely to have decreased due to lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, partly offset by improved realized pricing. The raw materials segment is also expected to have logged lower profits due to two planned outages at Nucor’s direct reduced iron facilities. 

Meanwhile, U.S. steel prices recovered in the fourth quarter after the lows witnessed in the third quarter. Benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rebounded in the fourth quarter on major steel mills' price hikes amid a recovery in construction and automotive demand, extending lead times and tightening supply, partly due to plant outages. The recovery, which was more pronounced since November, led to HRC prices eclipsing $900 per short ton.

Higher selling prices are expected to have supported Nucor’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Our estimate for fourth-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $1,009, indicating a 9% year-over-year increase.

Nucor Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Nucor Corporation price-eps-surprise | Nucor Corporation Quote

What Our Model Unveils for NUE Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Nucor this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NUE is -0.55%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $1.82. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: NUE currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +21.23% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at $2.19.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, slated to release earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +3.84%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 54 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. 

Newmont Corporation NEM, scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +13.14% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for NEM’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.81.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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