Tesla Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Tesla TSLA is set to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 44 cents per share and $25.02 billion, respectively.

The consensus mark for fourth-quarter earnings per share has declined 3 cents in the past 30 days. The estimate for the bottom line implies a 39.7% contraction from the year-ago levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 2.7%.

In the last earnings season, the company missed earnings estimates. In the trailing four quarters, Tesla missed earnings estimates thrice and beat once, with the average negative earnings surprise being 11.1%.

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote

Factors to Shape Q4 Results

In the fourth quarter, Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles (comprising 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models), down 16% from the corresponding quarter of 2024. The deliveries also fall short of our estimate of 448,384 units. Withdrawal of the $7,500 EV tax credit and competition from Chinese EV manufacturers hurt Tesla’s sales in the fourth quarter of 2025. We expect revenues from automotive sales to decline 1.1% in the to-be-reported quarter. Gross margins from automotive sales are expected at 16%, in line with the year-ago period. Falling deliveries and an expected decline in margins are likely to have hurt the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, Tesla is positioned to gain from growing energy generation and storage revenues, supported by strong demand for its Megapack and Powerwall solutions. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage, reflecting an increase from 11 GWh in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and setting a new record. 

We expect revenues from the Energy Generation/Storage segment to be $3.4 billion, suggesting an uptick on a year-over-year basis. Our estimate for revenues from the Services/Other unit is pegged at $3.4 billion, implying 19.6% year-over-year growth.

What Does Our Model Say?

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +3.15%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 2 cents, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.

Cummins Inc. CMI is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.82% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cummins’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $5.19 per share and $8.16 billion. CMI surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 20.24%.

BorgWarner BWA is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11. The company has an Earnings ESP of +4.47% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BorgWarner’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.15 per share and $3.49 billion, respectively. BorgWarner surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 11.03%.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. The company has an Earnings ESP of +12.02% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 68 cents per share and $1.26 billion. RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 12.42%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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