AGNC Investment Q4 Earnings Coming Up: Here's What to Expect

AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 26, after market close.

The company’s third-quarter 2025 results were adversely impacted by a decline in tangible net book value per share and net interest spread. Nonetheless, a rise in average asset yield on the portfolio was positive.

AGNC Investment’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average negative surprise of 5.50%.

AGNC Investment Corp. Price and EPS Surprise

AGNC Investment Corp. price-eps-surprise | AGNC Investment Corp. Quote

In the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 37 cents per share, which is unchanged from the prior-year quarter.

Factors to Impact AGNC’s Q4 Performance

During the fourth quarter of 2025, mortgage rates declined meaningfully after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates twice, bringing the benchmark rate down to the 3.50–3.75% range. As a result, lower mortgage rates reduced borrowing costs for homebuyers, leading to a modest improvement in refinancing activity and mortgage origination volumes.

A large portion of AGNC Investment’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio is expected to have experienced relatively stable constant prepayment rates during the fourth quarter. This is likely to have favorably influenced AGNC’s net premium amortization during the quarter, thereby supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $959.7 million, indicating a rise of 6.3% from the prior quarter’s reported figure.

Fixed-income volatility remained relatively low during the fourth quarter, which is likely to have supported tighter mortgage spreads and steadier book value performance for AGNC during the period. Also, with the Fed rate cuts, banks and foreign investors continued to reemerge as marginal buyers of agency MBS, providing incremental demand support and potential upside to AGNC’s book value. These favorable factors are expected to have supported the company’s gain-on-sale margin during the fourth quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for AGNC Investment

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AGNC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: AGNC Investment has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: AGNC Investment currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

REIT Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of REIT stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

NETSTREIT Corp. NTST is also expected to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 10. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.51% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Quarterly earnings estimates for NTST have remained unchanged at 33 cents per share over the past week.

The Earnings ESP for Equity Residential EQR is +1.35% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is likely to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5.

Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EQR’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 28 cents per share.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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