MBLY Q4 Deep Dive: Advanced Product Development and Robotics Acquisition Define Outlook

Autonomous driving technology company Mobileye (NASDAQ:MBLY) reported Q4 CY2025 results topping the market’s revenue expectations, but sales fell by 9% year on year to $446 million. On the other hand, the company’s full-year revenue guidance of $1.94 billion at the midpoint came in 2.5% below analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.06 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Mobileye’s fourth quarter was marked by a decline in year-on-year sales, but revenue still surpassed Wall Street’s expectations. Management attributed the performance to ongoing demand for its ADAS (advanced driver-assistance systems) products and resilient order flows, despite a broader slowdown in the automotive sector. CEO Amnon Shashua highlighted that the company’s IQ6 chip won key programs with major automakers, while new product launches and technology integration contributed to operational complexity. Management also acknowledged a one-time expense from workforce efficiency initiatives, which affected profitability metrics.

Looking forward, Mobileye’s guidance reflects cautious optimism, with management expecting volume growth in core products despite flat global auto production. Execution on advanced product launches, including the integration of Menti Robotics, is central to the outlook. CFO Moran Shemesh noted that “the underlying growth in OpEx is approximately 5%,” driven by inflation and increased R&D for new offerings. Management sees customer demand for next-generation ADAS and robotics as a meaningful growth lever but remains conservative due to uncertainties in China and foreign exchange headwinds.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management cited resilient demand for its core ADAS products, the first major wins for its IQ6 chip, and the strategic acquisition of Menti Robotics as primary developments impacting the quarter.

• IQ6 chip traction: Mobileye secured significant design wins with two of the world’s largest automakers for its IQ6 chip, enhancing its position in the next generation of mass-market ADAS. Management described these as “major programs” that should create a flywheel effect, attracting increased OEM interest.
• Surround ADAS momentum: The company saw accelerated engagement from additional automakers for its surround ADAS product, which management believes addresses OEM cost and regulatory needs while enabling hands-free driving for high-volume vehicles. These wins are expected to standardize advanced safety in more vehicle categories.
• Menti Robotics acquisition: Mobileye acquired Menti Robotics, a company focused on humanoid robots for industrial and logistics environments. Management highlighted Menti’s vertical integration and passive demonstration learning as differentiators, with planned synergies in simulation and vision technologies between the two companies.
• Customer inventory dynamics: CFO Moran Shemesh noted that Tier 1 customer inventory levels ended the year “extremely low,” suggesting Q1 would see some restocking, but that overall demand trends remain positive.
• One-time expense impact: The quarter included a nonrecurring workforce efficiency expense, which was not part of prior guidance and pressured adjusted operating income, though management emphasized this should not carry forward into future quarters.

Drivers of Future Performance

Mobileye anticipates modest growth driven by strong customer engagement for ADAS, advanced product launches, and early Menti Robotics commercialization, but faces margin pressures and operational cost increases.

• ADAS volume growth: Management expects IQ unit shipments to rise in Q1, reflecting restocking and ongoing demand for ADAS features. However, volumes are forecasted to stabilize for the remainder of the year, as management remains conservative about the outlook in China and global auto production trends.
• Margin headwinds and cost structure: Gross margins are projected to decline due to a shift in product mix (including the dual-chip program) and continued cost savings on older IQ5-based products. Operating expenses are set to increase, mainly from R&D for advanced products and the integration of Menti Robotics, with foreign exchange headwinds partly offset by workforce initiatives.
• Robotics and advanced launches: The company’s integration of Menti is expected to unlock new business opportunities in industrial robotics, with initial proof-of-concept deployments planned in 2026. Management believes technology overlap between autonomous vehicles and robotics will accelerate go-to-market timelines, although commercialization will occur gradually.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the pace of customer adoption for Mobileye’s advanced IQ6 chip and surround ADAS platform, (2) progress on the integration and commercialization of Menti Robotics in industrial settings, and (3) margin stabilization as operating expenses rise. Developments in regulatory approval for robotaxi deployments and additional OEM wins will serve as key indicators of future performance.

Mobileye currently trades at $10.55, down from $10.77 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

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