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Demand for Bitcoin is rising at a time when supply remains relatively fixed.
New financial products are reducing some of the risk and volatility of investing in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has a track record of posting triple-digit returns that dates all the way back to 2012.
Right now, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is going nowhere fast. It currently trades for just $90,000 and is sitting nearly 30% below its all-time high of $126,000 from October.
But all of that could change quickly. According to Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson, Bitcoin is on a rocket ship to $250,000 this year. At today's prices, that implies a stunning gain of 177% in a span of just 11 months. So is he right?
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From Hoskinson's perspective, it all comes down to the Law of Supply and Demand.
Right now, demand for Bitcoin is off the charts. Institutional investors are upping their allocation to Bitcoin as a stand-alone asset class. Newfangled Bitcoin treasury companies such as Michael Saylor's Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) are hoovering up Bitcoin at a prodigious clip. Even the U.S. government is getting into the act, with tentative plans to buy new Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Image source: Getty Images.
At the same time, the lifetime supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins, and 19.97 million of those coins are already in circulation. This creates enormous scarcity. There's just not enough Bitcoin to go around for everyone.
So, basic economic theory says that if the demand for an asset takes off, while the supply stays relatively unchanged, then the price should shoot up. Viewed from this perspective, Bitcoin at a current price of $90,000 is a coiled spring, just waiting to explode in value.
That said, this is the same argument people have been making about Bitcoin for years now, just with a higher price target. Greater institutional adoption -- from Wall Street, big institutional investors, corporations, and governments -- should always lead to a higher price.
So what's different this time around? One factor is the increasing array of financial products that give exposure to Bitcoin. This goes well beyond just the new spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched in early 2024. It also includes new Bitcoin financial derivatives, as well as new Bitcoin-linked credit products.
As these new financial products go mainstream, they should reduce some of the risk and volatility of investing in Bitcoin. In the process, they should open up this cryptocurrency to a broader array of risk-averse investors.
And it's not like Bitcoin is any stranger to monster years of outperformance. In 2013, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 5,428%. In 2017, Bitcoin exploded by 1,375%. In 2020, Bitcoin increased by 305%. Even as recently as 2023, Bitcoin soared by 157%. So is an annual return of 177% really so outlandish?
For the sake of Bitcoin investors everywhere, let's hope the answer to that question is "no." If history is any guide, Bitcoin has at least an outside shot of hitting a price of $250,000 this year.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and Cardano. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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