MSCI Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

MSCI MSCI is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, 2026.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is currently pegged at $4.61 per share, which has increased by a couple of pennies over the past 30 days. The figure indicates an increase of 10.29% reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $821.98 million, suggesting an increase of 10.55% from the year-ago quarter’s reported numbers.

MSCI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.86%. 

MSCI Inc Price and EPS Surprise

MSCI Inc price-eps-surprise | MSCI Inc Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced Q4 Performance

MSCI’s fourth-quarter 2025 performance is expected to have benefited from its growing recurring revenues and global client base, along with strong index revenues and asset-based fees. 

MSCI’s Index business is expected to have remained a key growth driver in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company has seen strong momentum in asset-based fee run-rate growth, particularly in equity ETFs linked to MSCI indexes, which captured $46 billion in inflows during the third quarter. The demand for ETFs linked to MSCI developed markets ex-U.S. indexes and emerging markets indexes has been robust, and this trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

MSCI is actively deepening its penetration into newer client segments, including hedge funds, wealth managers, banks, broker-dealers, and asset owners. The company has seen significant growth in recurring net-new subscription sales across these segments, with hedge funds posting a record 21% growth in the third quarter of 2025.  Wealth managers are increasingly licensing MSCI’s private capital fund transparency data, while asset owners are adopting MSCI’s private capital indexes and frozen indexes as benchmarks.  These efforts to expand its client base and deepen relationships with existing clients are expected to have yielded further benefits in the to-be-reported quarter.

MSCI is leveraging AI across its operations, from data capture to product development.  The company has already seen significant cost savings and efficiency improvements, with AI helping to scale data collection and enhance investment and risk models. AI-powered products have contributed $15-$20 million in sales in 2025, and MSCI plans to continue integrating AI into its operations to drive both revenue growth and margin expansion. The company expects AI to play a critical role in reducing operating expenses while enabling the development of new solutions, which are likely to have contributed to the fourth-quarter performance. 

However, challenging macroeconomic conditions, along with muted demand for sustainability and climate solutions, are a concern. Sluggish sales performance in the EMEA region, particularly among asset managers, poses a risk. Market dynamics and client budget constraints also challenge overall growth. These factors are expected to have affected revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the exact case here.

MSCI has an Earnings ESP of -1.36% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Ametek AME has an Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ametek shares have gained 19.3% in the trailing 12-month period. AME is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, 2026.

Amphenol APH has an Earnings ESP of +3.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

Amphenol shares have gained 123.7% in the past 12-month period. APH is likely to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, 2026.

ASML Holdings ASML has an Earnings ESP of +2.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

ASML Holdings shares have gained 101.2% in the past 12-month period. ASML is likely to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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