Norfolk Southern to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, before market open.

Norfolk Southern has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 1.58%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Norfolk Southern this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced NSC’s Q4 Performance

E-commerce demand has been driving shipment volumes for Norfolk Southern and is likely to boost results. The company utilizes its Precision Scheduled Railroading operating plan to cut costs and improve service quality, ensuring efficient use of assets. NSC’s robust free cash flow generation also enables it to maintain steady, shareholder-friendly initiatives.

On the flip side, softness in the freight market and volumes is a negative for NSC and is likely to have hurt its performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Additionally, inflationary pressure, high interest rates, tariff-related uncertainties, weak freight demand and supply-chain disruptions also might have hurt NSC’s prospects in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 3.47% in the past 60 days to 2.78 per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies an 8.55% downside from the year-ago actual.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NSC’sfourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $3.01 billion, indicating a mere 0.4% growth year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Merchandise revenues is pegged at $1.91 billion, indicating a 3.7% increase from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Intermodal revenues is pegged at $761 million, indicating a 3.9% decline from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter Coal revenues is pegged at $371 million, indicating a 4.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

What Our Model Says About NSC

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Norfolk Southern this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Norfolk Southern has an Earnings ESP of -0.16% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.

Highlights of NSC’s Q3 Earnings

NSC's third-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 14 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.30 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.18 and increased 1.5% year over year.

Railway operating revenues were $3.10 billion in the third quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08 billion. The top line increased 2% year over year, on flat volumes. Total revenue per unit surged 2% year over year.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. 

Canadian National Railway CNI has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward by 1.43% at $1.42 per share over the past 60 days. CNI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice in the remaining, the average miss was 0.1%. 

United Parcel Service UPS has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.  UPS is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Jan. 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 2.29% upward over the past 60 days. UPS’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed in the remaining one, the average beat being 11.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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