The “Trump bump” is in effect again for critical mineral investors as the Trump administration invests in USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ:USAR).
As the administration doubles down on decoupling from Chinese supply chains, companies with direct government backing are seeing national security premiums reflected in their valuations.
Investors are speculating on how high USAR stock will climb.
The MP Materials Playbook
Last July, the U.S. government took a strategic 15% stake in MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:MP), sparking an intraday 60% surge. Since then, the stock has gained more than 100%, fueled by a multi-billion dollar Department of War package and federal support for the domestic rare earths industry, more broadly.
MP proved that once the government steps in as a shareholder, the floor for the stock shifts permanently higher.
LAC and TMQ: Validating the Trend
The pattern repeated with even more explosive results in late 2025:
- Trilogy Metals, Inc. (AMEX:TMQ): Shares skyrocketed over 200% in a single day (Oct 7, 2025) after the Department of War announced a 10% equity stake and reinstated permits for the Ambler Road project in Alaska.
- Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE:LAC): The 5% government stake and DOE loan for Thacker Pass have driven a 100% return over the last 12 months, positioning it as the domestic leader for the EV battery supply chain.
USA Rare Earth: Is 100% Too Conservative?
The Trump administration's Commerce Department is acquiring a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of a massive $1.6 billion package. The deal includes $300 million in equity at $17.17 per share and $1.3 billion in debt financing.
Given that USAR’s Round Top deposit in Texas and Oklahoma processing plant are the only viable domestic competitors to MP Materials’ magnet monopoly, a 100% run is likely the floor.
The stock also has outsized short interest of 17.45%, according to Benzinga Pro data, which could further fuel a break-out.
USAR Price Action: USA Rare Earth stock was up 15.9% at $28.72 on Monday morning, according to Benzinga Pro.
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