Novavax Stock Is Surging Monday: What's Driving The Action?

Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:NVAX) shares are up on Monday following a recent licensing agreement with Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) for its Matrix-M adjuvant, while renewed concerns around elevated respiratory illness levels are also lifting interest in vaccine makers. Here’s what investors need to know.

• Novavax shares are climbing with conviction. What’s behind NVAX gains?

Pfizer’s Bold Bet On Novavax’s Technology

Under the non-exclusive agreement, Pfizer will utilize Novavax’s Matrix-M adjuvant in products across two disease areas, with Novavax receiving a $30 million upfront payment. Additionally, the agreement includes potential development and sales milestones totaling up to $500 million, along with tiered royalties on products incorporating Matrix-M.

The companies have not disclosed specific products or timelines related to this licensing deal, but it marks a significant collaboration for Novavax’s technology, enhancing its efforts to monetize its vaccine platform.

Why Pfizer's Deal Matters For Novavax Stock

For Novavax, the Pfizer licensing deal is strategically important because it validates Matrix-M as a best-in-class adjuvant and plugs the company into Pfizer's global commercial engine.

Instead of shouldering all development and marketing risk alone, Novavax can now collect non-dilutive cash through the $30 million upfront payment, up to $500 million in milestones and ongoing royalties on future product sales.

That revenue can help fund late-stage programs, strengthen the balance sheet and extend Novavax's cash runway without issuing more shares.

Just as importantly, having a blue-chip partner like Pfizer broadens physician and regulator familiarity with Matrix-M, which could make it easier for Novavax to win additional partnerships in respiratory, COVID-19 and other vaccine markets. It also diversifies revenue beyond Novavax's flagship vaccine.

Rising Respiratory Illnesses Add Another Tailwind for Novavax Stock

Beyond the Pfizer licensing deal, Novavax is also benefiting from renewed investor focus on the broader respiratory illness landscape. Recent data from the CDC show elevated flu and RSV activity across the U.S., with the 2025–26 flu season now classified as moderately severe, driving increased attention toward vaccine manufacturers

This backdrop is supportive for Novavax, which remains positioned in seasonal and respiratory vaccines as demand trends stay elevated longer than usual.

Higher awareness around flu, RSV and potential COVID upticks reinforces the relevance of Novavax's technology and commercial offerings at a time when investors are reassessing underappreciated vaccine platforms.

What Do Mixed Momentum Indicators Mean?

The stock is currently trading 25.4% above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 25.5% above its 100-day SMA, indicating a strong short-term trend. Shares have increased by 4.56% over the past 12 months and are currently positioned closer to their 52-week highs than lows.

The RSI is at 64.40, which is considered neutral territory, while MACD is above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum. The combination of neutral RSI and bullish MACD suggests mixed momentum, leaving traders cautiously optimistic.

• Key Resistance: $10.50

How Will Novavax Tackle Emerging Health Threats?

Novavax is a biotechnology company that develops vaccines. The company works in the clinical stage of development with a focus on delivering novel products that prevent a broad range of diseases. It works together with its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary to produce vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats.

The company believes its vaccine technology has the potential to be applied broadly to a wide variety of human infectious diseases. The company manages its business as one operating segment, the development and commercialization of vaccines.

Upcoming Earnings Report: What To Watch

Investors are looking ahead to the company’s next earnings report on Feb. 26.

EPS Estimate: Loss of 56 cents (Down from a loss of 51 cents YoY)

Revenue Estimate: $85.52 Million (Down from $88.31 Million YoY)

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Novavax, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market:

• Value: 45.66 — Trading at a steep discount relative to peers.
• Momentum: 60.87 — Stock is not currently outperforming the broader market.

The Verdict: Novavax’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a stock that is struggling to gain traction in a bearish market. While the Value score suggests it may be undervalued, the low Momentum score indicates that traders should be cautious in the current environment.

Top ETF Exposure

• SPDR Series Trust SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE:XBI): 3.06% Weight

Significance: Because NVAX carries meaningful weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

NVAX Shares Surge Monday

NVAX Price Action: Novavax shares were up 5.67% at $9.69 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Image: AdobeStock Image