GEV Q4 Earnings on the Deck: How to Approach the Stock Now?

GE Vernova Inc. GEV is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 28, before market open. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $3.03 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 75.14%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pinned at $10.04 billion, indicating a decline of 4.91% from the year-ago reported figure.

GEV’s Earnings Surprise History

The company beat on earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 21.29%.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for GE Vernova this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Currently, GEV carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Worth a Look

Some stocks in the same industry that have the combination of factors indicating an earnings beat are Fluence Energy FLNC and TC Energy TRP. FLNC and TRP have an Earnings ESP of +14.89% and +0.89%, respectively. Both Fluence Energy and TC Energy hold a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Factors That Might Have Impacted GEV’s Q4 Performance

The company expects a strong fourth quarter marked by higher adjusted EBITDA, improved margins and positive free cash flow, reflecting better profitability and cash generation. While revenues in the fourth quarter may be slightly lower year over year, this can be attributed to a more even timing of gas turbine deliveries in 2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024, along with continued weakness in onshore wind. 

These headwinds might have been largely offset by robust volume growth in the Electrification segment. The company should have remained encouraged by rising demand and stronger, more consistent execution across the business, which must have supported solid performance in 2025. 

In October 2025, GE Vernova opened a new Repair Service Center in the Parque industrial Centenario, in the Neuquén Province in Argentina. This should have helped the company serve its customers in southern Latin America more efficiently by repairing turbine components locally instead of sending them overseas. This likely improved customer satisfaction and supported stronger recurring service revenues. 

GE Vernova launched PlanOS, an advanced utility planning software, in September 2025. This must have positioned the company to strengthen its foothold in the digital energy space. PlanOS allows utilities to more effectively predict power flows, evaluate resource availability, and maximize capacity growth by combining several simulation and planning engines into a single platform.  This innovation should have helped GE Vernova diversify beyond hardware into high-margin and recurring revenue streams and boosted its financial performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Power-Sales in units-Gas Turbines is pegged at 21, down from the year-ago quarter’s registered figure of 25. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Power-Gas Turbines is pinned at 3.66 GW, down from the year-ago quarter’s registered figure of 6.1 GW.

GEV Stock Price Performance

In the past three months, the stock has returned 14.1% against the industry’s decline of 2%.

GEV Stock Trading at a Premium

GE Vernova is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis.

GEV Stock Returns Higher Than Its Industry

The company’s trailing 12-month return on equity of 17.07% is higher than the industry average of 6.39%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company utilizes its shareholders’ funds to generate income.

Investment Thesis

With its electrification and gas turbine technologies, GE Vernova is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the enormous demand for reliable electricity and grid infrastructure, driven by the rapid rise of AI and data centers.

GE Vernova raised its long-term financial expectations and is sharing more confidence in its growth and shareholder returns. It now forecasts significantly higher revenues (about $52 billion by 2028) and profit margins than previously guided, driven by a growing backlog of orders and strong demand for its energy equipment and services.

However, GE Vernova is currently facing challenges from global supply-chain disruptions, which might impact its operations and profitability. The company depends on a vast and complex network — purchasing about $20 billion worth of materials and components from suppliers across more than 100 countries — to build its gas turbines, wind turbines and grid systems. Shortages of raw materials, shipping delays, and logistical bottlenecks have slowed production and increased input costs. This could negatively impact its financial performance and profit margins.

End Note

GE Vernova is well positioned to benefit from rising electricity demand driven by AI and data centers, supported by its electrification and gas turbine technologies. The company has raised its long-term outlook, forecasting higher revenue and margins through 2028. However, it faces risks related to supply-chain disruptions. Disruptions in the availability of raw materials could adversely impact its financial performance. 

Invested already invested in the stock may hold the stock at present and enjoy the benefits of earnings growth and better ROE. However, given its lower revenue growth and premium valuation, new investors may wait and look for a better entry point. 
 

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research