Royal Caribbean Prepares to Unveil Q4 Results: Key Things to Watch

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, before the opening bell.

RCL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise being 6%.

Trend in the Estimate Revision of RCL

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.81, indicating a rise of 72.4% from $1.63 reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $4.27 billion. The metric implies a rise of 13.5% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape Royal Caribbean's Q4 Quarterly Results

Royal Caribbean’s fourth-quarter 2025 revenue growth is likely to have been supported by a sharp increase in capacity, with available capacity up about 10% year over year. This growth is likely to have driven by new ship deliveries such as Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel, along with fewer dry dock days compared with the prior year.

The higher deployment enabled the company to carry more guests, particularly in the Caribbean, which accounted for nearly two-thirds of fourth-quarter capacity. The heavier exposure to this high-demand region, combined with a broader mix of short and long itineraries, is likely to have helped sustain volume growth despite tough year-ago comparisons.

Top-line performance was also likely to have benefited from continued yield growth, underpinned by resilient close-in demand and steady pricing across itineraries. Management commentary suggests consumers continued to prioritize travel experiences, allowing Royal Caribbean to maintain pricing power even as demand normalized. Net yields are expected to rise 2.2-2.7% in the to-be-reported quarter, building on strong prior-year growth. This is likely to have reflected higher ticket prices, stable load factors and incremental onboard spending per guest, partially offsetting weather-related disruptions.

Onboard and pre-cruise revenue trends are likely to have been another meaningful tailwind for the top line. A record share of onboard purchases was booked before sailing, with nearly 90% completed through digital channels, reflecting higher app engagement and better e-commerce conversion. Enhanced digital tools and personalization are likely to have driven higher guest spending, while the growing portfolio of exclusive destinations such as Perfect Day and Royal Beach Clubs improved itinerary appeal, supporting both ticket pricing and onboard revenues, particularly in the Caribbean-heavy fourth-quarter deployment.

Our model estimates third-quarter passenger ticket revenues to rise 14% year over year to $2.96 billion. We expect onboard and other revenues to rise 12.2% year over year to $1.3 billion.

Royal Caribbean’s earnings performance in the fourth quarter is likely to have been supported by strong cost discipline alongside revenue growth. Net cruise costs excluding fuel are expected to have declined year over year, indicating efficiency gains from scale, technology and AI-driven operating improvements. Fewer dry dock days, disciplined expense management and proactive fuel and financing strategies are likely to have helped offset headwinds from adverse weather and the temporary closure of Labadee, allowing revenue gains to translate into margin expansion and improved profitability. Per our model, third-quarter net cruise costs (excluding fuel per APCD) are estimated at $129.68 million (on a reported basis) and $129.91 million (on a constant-currency basis).

What Our Model Says About RCL Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Royal Caribbean this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Royal Caribbean’s Earnings ESP: RCL has an Earnings ESP of -0.29%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

RCL’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

For the to-be-reported quarter, Norwegian Cruise Line is expected to register a 7.7% increase in earnings. Norwegian Cruise Line reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average surprise being 28.9%.

Hilton Worldwide, Inc. HLT currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton Worldwide’s earnings are expected to increase 17.1%. Hilton Worldwide reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.8%.

Marriott International, Inc. MAR currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

For the to-be-reported quarter, Marriott International’s earnings are expected to increase 7.8%. Marriott International reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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