Oscar Health (OSCR) Slides As Medicare Proposal, UnitedHealth Miss Rock Insurer Stocks

Oscar Health Inc (NYSE:OSCR) shares are trading lower Tuesday morning as investors react to a surprise Medicare Advantage update from the Trump administration and downbeat earnings from industry bellwether UnitedHealth Group Inc. Here’s what investors need to know.

• Oscar Health shares are sliding. What’s behind OSCR decline?

OSCR Stock Drops On Medicare Advantage Rate Shock

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed 2027 Medicare Advantage payment changes that equate to a net average rate increase of just 0.09%, drastically below Wall Street expectations for a 4%–6% bump.

For Oscar, a technology-driven health insurer with growing exposure to Medicare Advantage alongside its core ACA marketplace and small-group products, the microscopic increase implies far less pricing headroom to offset rising medical costs.

The proposal also tightens risk-adjustment rules by excluding diagnoses captured in audio-only visits and certain chart reviews, potentially reducing risk scores for plans that rely on virtual care and data-driven coding, key parts of Oscar's model.

UnitedHealth Earnings Amplify Fears About Oscar's Cost Trend

UnitedHealth's fourth-quarter 2025 results poured fuel on the fire. The company posted a medical care ratio near 92% in the quarter and 89.1% for the year, up roughly 340 basis points from 2024, signaling heavier-than-expected medical utilization.

While UNH guided to EPS growth in 2026, its revenue outlook of more than $439 billion came in below consensus, underscoring pressure on top-line growth even for the industry leader.

What’s Driving Oscar Health’s Bearish Trend?

The stock is currently trading 6.8% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 14.2% below its 100-day SMA, indicating a bearish trend in the short to medium term. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 7.88%, and they are currently positioned closer to their 52-week lows than highs, reflecting ongoing struggles in the market.

The RSI is at 45.56, which is considered neutral territory, while the MACD is below its signal line, indicating bearish pressure on the stock. The combination of neutral RSI and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum, reflecting uncertainty in the stock’s near-term outlook.

• Key Resistance: $16.50
• Key Support: $14.50

Oscar Health’s Business Model

Oscar Health is a health insurance company that provides various insurance plans for individuals, families and employees. The company also offers virtual care, doctor support, scheduling appointments and other related services, including plans in the Medicare Advantage program for adults aged 65 and older.

Earnings Forecast: A Mixed Bag Ahead

Investors are looking ahead to the next earnings report on Feb. 10.

• EPS Estimate: Loss of 89 cents (Down from Loss of 62 cents YoY)
• Revenue Estimate: $3.16 billion (Up from $2.39 billion YoY)

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Hold Rating with an average price target of $14.64. Recent analyst moves include:

• UBS: Upgraded to Neutral (Raises Target to $17.00) (Jan. 9)
• Barclays: Upgraded to Equal-Weight (Raises Target to $18.00) (Jan. 5)
• Stephens & Co.: Initiated with Equal-Weight (Target $17.00) (Dec. 11, 2025)

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for Oscar Health, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses.

• Momentum: Weak (Score: 33.95) — Stock is underperforming the broader market.

The Verdict: Oscar Health’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a classic ‘Weak’ setup. While the Momentum score indicates underperformance, the company's recent legislative support may provide a catalyst for recovery if effectively leveraged.

OSCR Shares Slide Tuesday

OSCR Price Action: Oscar Health shares were down 4.33% at $15.02 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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