'Big Short' Is Long On Molina Healthcare Stock-Was He Big Wrong?

Michael Burry, the man who famously bet against the housing market, is no stranger to lonely trades. In late 2025, as health insurers faced a brutal landscape of rising medical costs and regulatory pressure, Burry made his move.

In the third quarter of 2025, he liquidated his high-profile stake in UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH) and rotated heavily into Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH).

• MOH stock is moving. See the chart and price action here. 

Tuesday was a rough day for major insurers as the market digested a shockingly low 2027 Medicare rate proposal from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Molina shares dropped 8% and UnitedHealth fell 19%, while Humana, Inc. (NYSE:HUM) shed 21%. 

The Thesis: Medicaid Resilience

Burry's bet on Molina is a classic contrarian play, and he has argued that it is uniquely positioned to weather the regulatory storm. 

In a series of Substack posts, he dubbed Molina a “generational buy,” even comparing it to Warren Buffett's early, transformational investment in Geico.

His reasoning? Burry noted that roughly 75% of Molina's revenue is tied to Medicaid, not Medicare. Even as competitors lose money on these contracts, Molina has maintained disciplined operations and “conservative accounting,” allowing it to stay profitable in a niche where others are failing.

Was He Big Wrong?

It looks like Burry may have side-stepped the steep losses faced by other insurers with his move into Molina. 

• Prescient Timing: Burry exited UnitedHealth before Tuesday's 20% crash, while Molina dropped 8%. 
• The Burry Bump: Molina stock broke above its 100-day moving average, entering a seven-day winning streak in early January that saw the stock surge over 13%.
• Takeover Speculation: Burry has also floated the idea that Molina is a prime acquisition target. He argued that if he were “sitting on enough billions,” he would buy the entire company outright, citing a clearer path to long-term growth than even tech giants like Apple.

Though Molina stock slipped on Tuesday, it fared much better than its peers UnitedHealth, CVS Health Corp. (NYSE:CVS) and Humana. 

Early indications for 2026 suggest Burry might have the last laugh — again.

Image created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.