Lockheed Martin Q4 Preview: Can Record $179 Billion Backlog Overcome Execution Jitters? LMT Guidance Hints At Beat Vs. Street Consensus

Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT) heads into its fourth-quarter earnings report on Jan. 29 with a massive $179 billion backlog shielding it from recent operational turbulence. While Wall Street remains cautious following mid-year execution stumbles, management's own full-year outlook suggests the defense giant could be poised to beat consensus estimates.

The Numbers Game: Implied Guidance Vs. The Street

A significant discrepancy has emerged between analyst expectations and the company's stated financial targets.

Wall Street consensus currently pegs Lockheed's fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) at approximately $5.87, as per Benzinga. However, management's full-year 2025 guidance—reaffirmed in October—tells a more bullish story.

With year-to-date earnings standing at $15.69 per share, meeting the midpoint of their full-year EPS guidance ($22.25) implies a fourth-quarter profit of roughly $6.56 per share.

If Lockheed merely hits its own targets, it would deliver a substantial upside surprise against the lower bar set by analysts.

Execution In The Spotlight

The primary tension for investors lies between demand and delivery. The company boasts a record $179 billion backlog, fueled by major wins like the F-35 Lots 18-19 finalization and historic demand for PAC-3 missiles.

Yet, confidence was shaken in the second quarter when the company absorbed $1.6 billion in charges related to a classified aeronautics program and rotary systems.

All eyes will be on the F-35 program's recovery. To meet its full-year delivery target of 175–190 jets, Lockheed needs to have handed over at least 32 aircraft in the final quarter.

Successful execution here is critical for stabilizing free cash flow, which management expects to land between $6.6 billion and $6.8 billion for the year.

2026 Outlook

Beyond the fourth quarter results, the forward-looking narrative is split. Bulls, like Truist, view 2025's underperformance as a “clearing event” that sets up a favorable valuation for 2026.

Conversely, bears at JPMorgan warn of a “cash flow cliff” in 2027 due to pension headwinds, capping long-term growth potential. Wednesday's guidance for 2026 cash flow will likely determine which camp controls the stock's next move.

LMT Jumps Nearly 20% YTD

Shares of LMT have jumped 23.17% over the last month and 23.01% in 2026 so far. It was up 41.26% over the last six months and 18.12% over the year.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that LMT maintains a strong price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor value ranking.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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