Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Intuitive Machines, Inc. on The Analyst's Journal’s Substack by A_Capital. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LUNR. Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s share was trading at $18.42 as of January 26th. LUNR’s trailing P/E was 9.20 according to Yahoo Finance.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and operates space products and services in the United States. LUNR represents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the emerging lunar economy, positioned at the intersection of government space policy acceleration and commercial lunar development. The company is transitioning from a specialized lunar lander provider to a vertically integrated space infrastructure prime contractor through its pending $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems.

This acquisition would immediately expand LUNR’s pro forma revenue to over $850 million, increase its backlog to $920 million, and provide established GEO/LEO satellite manufacturing capabilities, effectively transforming the company into a full-service space mission provider from Earth orbit to the lunar surface. The company’s near-term growth is underpinned by multiple NASA contracts, including the $4.82 billion potential Near Space Network Services (NSNS) program and the anticipated Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contract, where LUNR is a leading contender.

The company’s competitive advantages include proven lunar landing experience, pioneering methalox propulsion beyond LEO, deep NASA partnerships, and, post-Lanteris, vertical integration across spacecraft design, manufacturing, and mission operations. However, significant execution risks remain, highlighted by two prior hard landings, limited operating history, and ongoing negative EBITDA. Despite these risks, LUNR has achieved positive gross margins in recent quarters and targets positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025, with pro forma profitability expected in 2026.

The investment case is supported by multiple near-term catalysts: the IM-3 mission scheduled for Q1 2026, the LTV contract award, and successful Lanteris integration. If executed successfully, these developments could substantially derisk the business, scale revenue threefold, and establish LUNR as a dominant player in the lunar economy.

At current levels around $10–11, the stock offers asymmetric upside for risk-tolerant investors, with potential to reach $20–25 in the bull case while remaining highly volatile and contingent on mission and contract execution. The recommendation is a speculative buy, suitable for investors comfortable with binary outcomes and active milestone monitoring.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong operational momentum, growing backlog, and strategic positioning across launch, space systems, and defense. RKLB’s stock price has appreciated by 292.39% since our coverage. Steve Wagner shares an identical thesis but emphasizes the Mynaric acquisition as a key near-term catalyst.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 25 hedge fund portfolios held LUNR at the end of the third quarter which was 27 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of LUNR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than LUNR and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.