Suncor Energy to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Suncor Energy Inc. SU is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 3, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 77 cents per share, and the same for revenues is pinned at $8.5 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced SU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of SU’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the third quarter, this Alberta-based integrated oil and gas company’s earnings beat the consensus mark. SU reported earnings per share of $1.07, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents. This was primarily due to strong production growth in its upstream segment in the reported quarter. The company’s operating revenues of $9.2 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.1%.

SU’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 10.6%.

This is depicted in the graph below: 

Suncor Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Suncor Energy Inc. price-eps-surprise | Suncor Energy Inc. Quote

Trend in SU’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised 7% upward in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 13.5% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a fall of 5.1% from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of SU’s Q4 Release

Suncor Energy operates in three main areas. First, in its Oil Sands business, SU extracts and processes oil from Canada's oil sands, producing crude oil and synthetic oil. Second, through its Exploration and Production segment, the company operates offshore oil and gas fields, producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. Finally, in its Refining and Marketing segment, Suncor Energy refines crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel. It sells these products through its retail gas stations and other distribution channels.

SU’s record third-quarter operational performance positions it well for the to-be-reported quarter. Industry-leading utilization across upstream and downstream assets, combined with faster, lower-cost turnarounds and flat operating costs despite higher volumes, should support stronger cash flow, margin resilience and predictable earnings even if oil prices remain volatile. In January 2026, Suncor Energy announced a record-breaking 2025 performance, in which it stated that it achieved its Investor Day performance targets, a year ahead of schedule, supported by the record operational performance, creating a positive trajectory for the company.

On a bearish note, despite strong execution, near-term performance remains exposed to external pressures. A weaker crude price environment, coupled with currency headwinds from a stronger Canadian dollar, could have compressed realized pricing and margins in the fourth quarter, potentially offsetting some of the gains from higher volumes and operational efficiency.

What Does Our Model Predict About SU?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Suncor Energy this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of SU: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -4.78%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SU’s Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. PTEN currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

PTEN is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 4. Notably, Patterson’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the other two, delivering an average surprise of 17.5%. Valued at around $2.8 billion, the company’s shares have lost 11.3% in a year.

BP p.l.c. BP presently has an Earnings ESP of +2.47% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 10.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BP’s 2025 revenues indicates 5.2% year-over-year growth.Valued at around $98.1 billion, the company’s shares have gained 21% in a year.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 6.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Plains All American Pipeline’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 0.7% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $13.8 billion, the company’s shares have lost 3.8% in a year.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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