Illinois Tool Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Illinois Tool Works Inc. ITW is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 3, 2026, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has decreased 0.4% in the past 30 days. The company has an impressive earnings surprise history, having outperformed the consensus estimate in each of the preceding four quarters. The average surprise was 2.2%.

The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $4.07 billion, suggesting growth of 3.6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for adjusted earnings is pinned at $2.68 per share, indicating a 5.5% increase from the year-ago quarter’s number.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Illinois Tool this earnings season.

Factors to Note Ahead of ITW’s Results

Strength in the institutional, restaurant and food retail markets in North America, along with strong demand in the European warewashing equipment market, is likely to have boosted the performance of Illinois Tool’s Food Equipment segment. Our model estimates the segment’s revenues to increase 2.8% year over year to $690.5 million.

Strong demand across the company’s filter medical and specialty films businesses is likely to have driven its Specialty Products segment’s performance. We expect the Specialty Products segment’s revenues to grow 4.9% year over year to $436.4 million.

Solid momentum in the equipment business due to higher demand in the Asia Pacific and the Middle East markets is expected to have aided the Welding segment’s performance in the fourth quarter. Our model estimates the segment’s revenues to increase 4.8% from the year-ago quarter to $468.3 million.

The Automotive OEM segment’s performance is expected to have benefited from growth in auto build rates and market penetration gains in Europe. We expect the segment’s revenues to grow 7.3% year over year to $842.5 million in the fourth quarter.

Higher demand for products in the semiconductor end market is expected to boost the Test & Measurement and Electronics segment’s results. We expect the segment’s revenues to increase 1.6% year over year to $758.6 million in the fourth quarter.

However, weakness in the polymers and fluids businesses, owing to lower demand across North America and Europe, is expected to mar the Polymers & Fluids segment’s results. Also, softness in the automotive aftermarket business due to lower demand in the North American body and tyre repair businesses is likely to have played a spoilsport. We expect the Polymers & Fluids segment’s revenues to be $438.7 million.

Lower demand in the North American, European and Asia Pacific commercial and residential end markets is likely to have hurt the Construction Products segment’s revenues in the fourth quarter. We expect the segment’s revenues to inch down 0.1% from the year-ago quarter to $437.6 million.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Illinois Tool Works Inc. price-eps-surprise | Illinois Tool Works Inc. Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Illinois Tool this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: ITW has an Earnings ESP of -0.50% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.68 per share, higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.67. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Illinois Tool presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

Ingersoll Rand IR has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12.

Ingersoll Rand’s earnings matched the Zacks Consensus Estimate thrice and missed once in the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being a negative 0.34%.

Allegion plc ALLE has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 17.

Allegion’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 5.9%.

Watts Water Technologies WTS has an Earnings ESP of +0.59% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 11.

Watts Water’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.9%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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