Should CPT Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Camden Property Trust CPT is slated to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, after market close. The company’s quarterly results are likely to witness a year-over-year rise in revenues, though funds from operations (FFO) per share might have remained flat.

In the last reported quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of $1.70, delivering a surprise of 0.59%. Results reflected higher same-property revenues and effective blended lease rates, though higher interest expenses partly marred the growth tempo.

In the preceding four quarters, CPT’s FFO per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, with the average beat being 1.64%. The graph below depicts this surprise history:

Camden Property Trust Price and EPS Surprise

Camden Property Trust price-eps-surprise | Camden Property Trust Quote

In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. apartment market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its fourth-quarter 2025 performance.

US Apartment Market in Q4

Apartment REIT fundamentals softened in the fourth quarter of 2025 as the sector normalized from the exceptional demand of recent years. According to the RealPage report, the market recorded net move-outs of about 40,400 units during the quarter, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years. Full-year absorption totaled just more than 365,900 units, signaling a return toward long-term leasing trends rather than a demand collapse.

Supply remains the primary pressure point. Approximately 409,500 units were delivered in 2025, including about 89,400 in the fourth quarter, keeping competition elevated despite a sequential slowdown in completions. As a result, occupancy slipped to 94.8%, while effective asking rents declined 1.7% quarter over quarter. Rents fell 0.6% in the calendar year 2025, extending the year-over-year downturn for a second consecutive quarter. Concessions expanded meaningfully, with more than 23% of units offering incentives averaging 7%, reflecting REITs’ focus on protecting occupancy and cash flow.

Market performance remains uneven. Supply-heavy Sun Belt markets such as Austin, Phoenix and Denver experienced the steepest rent pressure, while coastal and tech-oriented metros, including New York and San Francisco, continued to post rent growth due to tighter supply.

Factors at Play for Camden Property and Q4 Projections

Against this residential industry backdrop, Camden is expected to have drawn support in the fourth quarter of 2025 from its exposure to high-growth markets and a strong resident base, helping it deliver steady rental revenues.

A favorable demography with a high preference for renting, coupled with its well-balanced footprint across urban and suburban locations, is likely to have added stability to top-line performance.

However, the elevated supply of rental units in certain markets is likely to have led to heightened competition, impeding the momentum in rent growth and adversely affecting its bottom-line performance.

For the fourth quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CPT’s revenues currently stands at $394.9 million, implying growth of 2.2% from the year-ago reported number.

For the fourth quarter, Camden expected core FFO per share in the range of $1.71-$1.75. However, before the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were not adequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly core FFO per share has remained unchanged in the past three months at $1.73, which lies within the guided range and shows no change year over year.

Here Is What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for CPT:

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Camden this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Camden currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.91%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the residential REIT industry — Equity Residential EQR and UDR Inc. UDR — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Equity Residential is slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 5. EQR has an Earnings ESP of +0.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

UDR, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 9, currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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