Aflac Gears Up for Q4 Earnings: Can Higher Premiums Help it Quack?

Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated AFL is set to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 4, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.71 per shareon revenues of $4.48 billion.

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate declined by a penny over the past month. Yet, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.6%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year increase of 3.8%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $17.72 billion, implying a fall of 0.6% year over year. Nevertheless, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $7.63, implying 5.8% year-over-year growth.

Aflac beat earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 9.4%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for Aflac

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AFL has an Earnings ESP of -3.12% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 3% year-over-year increase. While the consensus mark signals a 5.1% increase in total adjusted revenues in the Aflac U.S. unit, due to higher premiums, the same for the Aflac Japan unit suggests a 1% rise from the year-ago quarter.

Total benefit to premium ratio for Aflac Japan stands at 64.7, down from 66.5 in the year-ago period. Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed 3.4% growth in pre-tax adjusted earnings.The factors stated above are likely to have positioned Aflac for year-over-year growth.

However, the total benefit to premium ratio in Aflac U.S. is pegged at 48.9, up from 46.3 a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates a 7.1% year-over-year decline.

Also, the consensus mark for net investment income predicts a 5% decline from the year-ago period. These are likely to have partly offset the positives, making an earnings beat uncertain.

How Did Aflac’s Peers Perform?

Several insurance companies, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MRSH, Aon plc AON and The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. HIG, have already reported their financial results for the December quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Marsh & McLennan Companies reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.12, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.6%, thanks to solid growth in the Risk and Insurance Services and Consulting unit, particularly from the Guy Carpenter, Mercer and Marsh Management Consulting businesses. However, the upside was partially offset by MRSH’s elevated operating expenses.

Aon reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.85 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9%, driven by solid organic revenue growth, robust new business and high retention across key solution lines like Commercial Risk and Reinsurance Solutions. Growth in insurance-linked securities and advisory demand in Retirement services also contributed, along with net restructuring savings that supported AON’s margin expansion.

Hartford Insurance reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted operating earnings of $4.06 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 27.9% on the back of higher net investment income, favorable PYD and lower P&C catastrophe losses. Also, higher earned premiums and improvement in the Personal Insurance underlying loss and LAE ratio benefited the results, partially offset by HIG’s increased expense ratios in Employee Benefits and P&C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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