Will Declining Medical Customers Affect Cigna's Q4 Earnings?

The Cigna Group CI is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $7.87 per share on revenues of $69.9 billion.

The fourth-quarter earnings estimate remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 18.5%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 6.5%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna’s revenues is pegged at $270 billion, implying an increase of 9.3% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $29.63, signaling growth of 8.4% year over year.

Cigna beat the earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being negative 1.8%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Cigna Group Price and EPS Surprise

Cigna Group price-eps-surprise | Cigna Group Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for Cigna

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

CI currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

What’s Shaping Cigna’s Q4 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pharmacy revenues indicates a 12.2% improvement from the prior-year quarter’s number. Also, the consensus estimate for fees and other revenues signals 12.1% year-over-year growth.

The consensus mark for revenues from the overall Evernorth Health Services segment is pegged at $59.2 billion, indicating 10.1% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for pre-tax adjusted income from Evernorth indicates a 1.9% increase from a year ago. The consensus mark for the medical care ratio or MCR is pegged at 87.21%, down from 87.90% a year ago.

However, the consensus mark for premiums implies a 22.2% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark for Cigna’s total medical customers is pegged at 18.1 million, indicating a decline from 19.1 million a year ago. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cigna Healthcare revenues suggests a 17.8% decrease.

A decline in net investment income is likely to have been a roadblock to Cigna’s revenue growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net investment income suggests a 5.1% year-over-year decline.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Cigna, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. TARS has an Earnings ESP of +136.84% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 68.3% improvement from a year ago. It beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters. The consensus estimate for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ revenues is pegged at $145 million, indicating 118.3% year-over-year growth.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. DAWN has an Earnings ESP of +40.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Day One Biopharmaceuticals’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 78.3% improvement from a year ago. It beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once. The consensus estimate for Day One Biopharmaceuticals’ revenues is pegged at $46.4 million, indicating 58.7% year-over-year growth.

Option Care Health, Inc. OPCH has an Earnings ESP of +1.54% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Option Care Health’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter signals a 31.4% improvement from a year ago. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 6.1%. The consensus estimate for Option Care Health’s revenues is pegged at $1.5 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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